Growing pains...

I've noticed something very interesting... I have some kale (a brassica, like cabbage, but grows on a stem that can get tall) planted in two locations. The first patch is down in the bottom garden, exposed to rain, elements, birds, insects. The second lot are in pots, by the back porch, and are where I can keep an eye on them.

Guess which get eaten most by caterpillars?

I have a thought that it's a case of small birds actively keeping down any grubs on the lot that's further away - birds that would keep away from the house. Alternatively, there are a few other, companion plants that are in that bed - either keeping bugs away or convincing them that they are better eating.

It's good to know, though, that there are alternatives to pesticides... Apart from health concerns with using them, if you can't make something that you depend on - well, you better hope you don't need it, or can find something else to use in its place.

Entropy

Well, I haven't written in a while... which is what happens when life, rather than writing, takes up your time.

Around the world, sabres continue to be rattled, warmongers and propagandists continue their plans, and my preparations continue. Continue, I might say, although more in a 'getting on with things' way. Fortunately, extensive rains have allowed lots of growth in the garden. An extensive crop of peaches, plentiful in number although small in size, is a nice indication that things can, indeed, be done. Of course, this assumes that  we won't ever encounter a devastating drought, that the winds don't bring radioactive dust, there will be plenty of sunlight for chlorophyll - that the land remains healthy.

Everything breaks down... that's the problem...

I read recently that a starting population of a couple of thousand is required in order to not have genetic bottlenecks in a population. A population of about 400 will allow you to avoid congenital problems for a couple of centuries. Once you get into the couple of dozen range - well, small populations tend to accumulate congenital problems very quickly... At least in plants, such problems aren't as bad, although I'd rather have a lot more land, and a couple of dozen of each tree. Granted I'd need a few people to work the land, but... On the other hand, for the most part I'll be growing them for the food they provide, less on propagating... Although propagating means more food available.

I don't know how things will end up, but at least I have the advantage of being away from big targets, major pollution sources... Economic problems are probably the likeliest, but you never can tell.

I still need to build a still or two, I have found an interesting solar still that might be worth the money - I like the idea of not having to spend a lot of time gathering firewood. A shed is going to help, when I finally get it; I have found the one I want - unfortunately, the place I currently want to put it is being used for some annual bushes. Once the crop is harvested (a couple of months), the bushes can be ripped out, but I have to wait. I should get the kit for the shed, so at least it's ready. Also need a greenhouse, but that can wait...

Getting away from it all...

There's always something trying to grab your attention and, more significantly, money. Rates, insurance, bills... all screaming for attention, and generally in one heap. I'm not sure whether TEOTWAWKI will be good (get rid of all these items of "civilisation") or bad (life much, much harder). Economic collapse would be interesting - but how likely, at the moment? There would still be bills, but perhaps some relief - if no one else is paying their mortgages, would a bank take your home away, especially if you point out that you're not going to up and move, that it's a better investment for them if you stay where you are even if they press pause on your payments...

Of course, if things got bad enough, quite possibly the government would put a stop into effect on debts, or make some relief available. Well, okay, it depends on the government, and the country you are in... and if your home is a tin shack... well, your daily life is probably an exercise in survival anyway. There are plenty of governments who would side with the banks, throwing people out, and governments who would side with people.

Rome had a bit of a problem under Tiberius (who ruled 14CE - 37CE) - at one point, interest rates were frozen, tax relief was ordered, and lenders called all debts in - creating a minor economic crisis... Famines, caused by poor wheat harvests in other parts of the early empire, saw people moved of the city, out to the country, where it was at least possible for them to get some food - you were at least able to provide something for yourself if you had land to work.

So, spring growth has shown itself to be promising for future years (assuming availability of the uncontrollables, like rain), peaches are almost ready for harvest (quite a crop coming up), other trees putting plenty of growth in... There are still quite a few trees I need to get, if I can ever find the space to put them in, and plenty of herbs worth worrying about. The clove tree that I had died off, so I will have to wait for more to be available. Cocoa is on its way, tea is on the must-get, and I'm waiting on Melaleuca alternifolia to be ready - both as a hedge/barrier, but for the oil, which has medicinal properties.

Making a change from all the trees I have gotten, I got the other day some woad, and a henna bush. Henna is most famous for use in temporary tattoos, so perhaps a possible tradeable item. Woad, I discovered, is probably the most useful dye plant I could have found - easy to use, colour-fast by itself (no additional chemicals needed), and apparently has some primitive pharmacological uses...

So... plenty to do around the garden, but it's getting quite well established. Hopefully, and more than likely, there will be plenty of time before it's really needed.

The Economics of Economics

Tonight, I have come to a conclusion.

Given how my finances have become strained living two lives - one of Normal Citizen, and one of Survivor - things have come to a head.

I have decided that my services as survival adviser are for sale... I'd have qualms about doing any actual chemistry... Nor do I know the right people for getting some more... interesting hardware, but...

The only problem being finding someone willing to pay.

The Survival of Economics

I had an argument today... Nothing unusual in that, really, but notable in the content of the argument.

Basically, it boils down to the fact that modern Economics is bunk. These two were of the opinion that everything is happy, fine, and that Economists aren't chasing smoke. There are plenty of examples that things aren't going well, and that the economy is like a dog, chasing its own tail, about to bite down and get a very unpleasant surprise. There are plenty of things that Economics can't really explain or justify, let alone apply any real mathematics to...

There comes a point in any argument where you can't be bothered, and just walk away... Needless to say, they wouldn't be invited to help me work the land in the event of a cataclysm. Not that they'd realise that that particular brick wall is coming up fairly fast.

The real problem is the realisation that you're working hard to set up the basics of real self-sufficiency, with all the slog that entails - and lowered morale, and spending money and time to do it - yet the willingly ignorant have their heads stuck in the clouds, happy as anything... and you're very much in the minority. There are a few people on the 2012 wave - but as a fad, rather than understanding that TEOTWAWKI isn't going to arrive as a date on the calendar. As someone once lamented: "Bread and circuses..."

The Economics of Survival

The more I play the hobby farmer, the more I firmly believe that if you are going to Bug Out in response to a cataclysm, it's better and easier to do it pre-TSHTF than to trying to once it starts to happen. Once it starts to happen, you are forced, by circumstance, to only to be able to act in certain ways; additionally, you are limited in what happens far after.

Think about it. You live in the middle of the city, you have a backpack, a car full of supplies an Emergency happens. You can choose to:
    a) wait it through until it's obvious that your survival depends on you getting out
    b) get out of there well before anything happens
    c) listen to the local government or emergency services response advice.

Choice A: You wait too long, you can only get a small fraction of your supplies out as the roads are impassible - either blocked or flooded... all you can do is get out with what you can carry.

Choice B: You're jumping at your own shadow, and potentially putting yourself into worse problems.

Choice C: You forget that the people "leading" the response are humans, prone to human foibles, and may not know all the information... not to mention that you are leaving your life in their hands, absolving yourself of any responsibility for looking after your own safety.


The observant amongst you will point out to me the fact that, by choice of living in a semi-rural area, I am attempting to justify my own strategic planning - that may be the case.

On the other hand, I am finding a sizable chunk of my spare time taken up in all the work involved with getting a usable hobby farm going. While I admire the optimism of people who believe that they can do all this work, under the adverse conditions, and with the limited resources, that survival requires.

Plants take time to grow, and it is far better to get them growing when you have plenty of time, food, energy, and morale. Having some lemon seeds is not going to give you any lemons for a few years - never mind the fact that most citrus has to be grafted onto hardier rootstock to do well. Vegetables are quicker, no doubt, but still take time - especially if you're learning. In the long run, I do think that trees are going to be easier than annual crops for a varied diet - and give some more variety... yet grains, vegetables, and such are going to be necessary.

So... trees get planted, fertilised, pruned... especially in the spring.

Admittedly, I still have to consider the possibility of Bugging-Out to elsewhere... but I am in what would hopefully be a good position... You can't prepare for everything...

Getting into the rhythm of Spring

It's amazing what you can start doing when you have the time. Plenty of fruit trees planted, other trees getting cut down, the garden beds getting worked over. Although, in the case of the beds, more a case of being removed to make room for more trees...

I will have to find some uses for Aloe Vera - it seems to grow happily with little maintenance. Hardly sounds particularly... Survivalist-ish, but I'm not going to disregard anything that will give us an edge in a survival situation. That's the difference between a Real Survivalist and the Sheep.

Not that I particularly like that term "Survivalist"... It puts everyone in mind of the gun-totin', Bible-thumpin' paranoids... and the sort of thing that brings attention to the fact that you are equipping to get through most problems.

If you had to suddenly face a large scale crisis, you'll know how important it is to have preparations in place. I've been fortunate to have not had to face an inner-city riot... and now, living well outside of the city (or the nearest small township) the problems with urban crowding shouldn't be as bad...

On another note, a quarter of a century after the Chernobyl meltdown, it seems the plantlife in the area is thriving. It's had to adapt, but it's thriving... Life seems to find a way.

The Wages of Sin

There comes a point when you try to work out if you can afford to do everything you are trying to do. It's a simple enough idea: keep $incoming>$outgoing.

Except - there are always outgoings. And new outgoings. And outgoings that suddenly jump up in price. And outgoings that really should be gotten. And outgoings that aren't, strictly speaking, necessary, but are a good idea.

And yet - usually only one incoming, which never seems quite enough. Especially once you pay the strictly necessary bills, deal with things which suddenly pop up.

So... solar (electric) panels are on the back-burner, even though they would probably make a dent in the electricity bill. Solar thermal (hot water) isn't necessary (we have one), but could be experimental. Likewise, water tanks would be nice to get, even small ones for watering the garden, but... Of course, I'd rather putting in some underground tanks, but that would definitely shoot the price up, if I didn't want to break my back digging a couple of cubic metres of soil out.

Of course, there are a couple of ways to do things... a) Get a bank loan, or apply it to the mortgage... it doesn't get rid of the bill, but at least it means that it doesn't have to be all found right away. b) Find another, better paying job. c) Partake in... less... legal activities, which would mean more hassles - both from the enforcers of law, and those who actively break it. Not to mention the ethical qualms in doing so.

If I could find... customers interested in my knowledge on setting them up for cataclysms, that would help.

A lot of costs would lower if we moved further out into the countryside - yet other costs (such as fuel) jump up... And costs wouldn't lower if we moved closer to the city. Not that moving closer to the city would be pro-survival, anyway. Especially when a lot of houses are built not far above sea-level, or even on flood-plains.

Loading up the credit card preemptively isn't the answer, either. Apart from the fact that it's getting that way. When you aren't sure when things will happen, you have to ensure you have contingency plans... you'd be mad to spend everything in belief of the world ending next week when a big bill is due the following one - and things might continue on for a few months. Plus, as the recent economic problems in the US showed, an emergency doesn't mean the bills stop.

The Joy of Spring

Spring - when a young man's fancies turn to thoughts of What The Hell to do with the garden. Plenty of things like cutting down dead trees, putting new things in. The Aloe Vera has been propagating like mad, it can definitely go into the dry area in the garden.

Fortunately, I have three weeks of annual leave saved up, so now is the time to take it, getting gardening done before everything explodes in a frenzy of growth. Sometime over the weeks, I will get the chance to find the recycling centre, see what there is in the way of adaptable equipment...

Have been looking into algae as a crop. There are a few different things various types can be used for - food, fuel... Spirulina is quite nutritious; Algin from some seaweeds can be fairly easily polymerised and coloured, so has uses as a fabric, as well as for a few industrial purposes.

Of course, I still need an off-sider, or a couple of people, to help me with gettting some of these projects off the ground... Many hands, as they say, make light work...

More Than More Than Words

I manged to get a Geiger tube nice and cheap the other week... Just a pity I'm having trouble getting the circuit to work... Means that I'll have to trace through the circuit, borrow test instruments... Massive pain to do, but essential if it's to work. Fortunately, the test equipment is to hand - and so are plentiful replacement parts. Whether much in the way of spare parts would be available post-cataclysm. Not to mention all the work that would need to be done.

There have been a few natural environment problems recently. If 20 million people in an techno-industrialised country were to be affected, what then? What if 200 million people were affected? How much help would developing countries be willing or able to help?

On the bright side, more (hobby) farm work has been done. A couple of new plants - including native ginger, being used more as a decorative, but still edible. A couple of dying ones (one coffee seedling trunk broken), one peach not responsive to the arrival of Spring (the other quite happy). Fortunately, the persimmon has leaf buds about to open.

Which reminds me - I have to find enough of the right bits to make a pulping machine to make paper, or separate fibres from hemp (or similar)... and have to play with the glassware (and get some more) and try some bootstrap chemistry.

More Than Words.

I would be remiss if I didn't point out that my time has been filled with more than just buying books. There are always plenty of things to do - including "normal" life. When you work full-time, at a not-particularly-high wage (though still plenty for the frugal), you start to find limitations. Martial arts, fitness training... even music lessons - music keeps the brain fresh, and music is one of the things that makes humans what they are. Plus, it's one of the few things you could trade that you wouldn't lose or use up. Alright, except for strings, maintenance...

But there have been plenty of other things - putting fences up, getting ready for the arrival of spring, and all the work that will be needed in the garden. I've been putting off moving a grape vine that's not doing particularly well where it currently is... There are several that need to be planted this season, plenty of old (and less useful) trees to be removed - albeit slowly, as newer trees are planted and grow.

I've also been playing around with solar panels (although I have certain reservations about them), making solar thermal water heaters, solar dryers... I've also found where the nearest recycling depot is - so my coming annual holidays will see a trip or two, and hopefully finding some usable things like washing machine motors (very good for wind generators), water heaters usable as alcohol or water stills... Which reminds me - I have those solar still plans that I should try...

The Gathering of Wisdom

I've been looking through my library, acutely aware of certain deficiencies in a number of areas. I've a few decent references on human medicine, but am lacking enough good ones on veterinary medicine... I might have to look at some of the second-hand stores around universities for both.

Of course, half of medicine seems to be prevention, maybe a third trauma. I'm speaking as someone with only a small amount of medical training, so perhaps I'm not entirely appraised - but considering how much space in books tends to be devoted to hygiene, perhaps not. This doesn't take into account advances in many fields, specialist stuff...

Damn it... I am a generalist, not a specialist. I can do a lot, but... Jack of all trades, Master of none.

Far too much to gather... Oh, for some people to gather into the fold. I will be happy if I can learn enough blacksmithing soon to make a few things, but I need someone who makes it at least a serious hobby.

Don't get me wrong, I'm doing more than just buying books... But if you have limited time to learn every skill... And maybe, perhaps, avoiding the pitfalls of lost technology...

The End of Winter

I've realised what the thing is that I dislike most about winter.

More of the interesting, useful, and food-bearing trees are deciduous - they hibernate. Hazel, peach, persimmon... so many others... You cannot tell (without significant laboratory tests) whether or not they are still alright, alive but asleep. If you have a tree that you aren't sure is healthy, or you planted into the ground late in the season - you cannot tell whether a tree is asleep or has died until the change to spring, and the emergence of leaves.

It has been a mild winter, although good enough to get the deciduous trees to drop their leaves. Now, one peach tree, healthy before winter, has bloomed, plenty of leaves and flowers; the other, suffering an infection before, and treated over winter, has yet to show life. A few other trees have yet to show life. I have plenty of non-deciduous trees that are happily growing, putting growth even during winter.

I wonder, in face of humanity's on-coming winter, will the species continue to grow, hibernate, or die?

Something in the Air

The scent of the memory of death hung in the air all today.

It is the smell of thousands dying at the hands of the few.

It is the smell of hundreds of toxins dumped into the air, the land, and the sea, slowly poisoning all life.

Strangely enough, it is the smell of cinnamon...

The Value of Ethics, part 2

I have finally gotten around to continuing this train of thought - something that needs to happen more, I think.

I have mentioned the problems with plants; they are not the only things that have legal problems.

In a country where firearms are heavily restricted, and other weapons limited, what steps are ethical to obtain enough firepower to protect yourself, your family, your land? And what knowledge can you gather about making weapons, particularly if much of that information is illegal or, at least, raises the wrong questions from the wrong people?

Simple weapons are not out of the question. What is the difference between a staff as a weapon and a hiking staff, or even something that's just a length of wood? Obviously not much, except for a lot of training. Simple weapons are nice to have, but take more training than most people would normally care to do. Knives can be useful, but are dangerous - it is very easy for things to go wrong.

It's possible to make a weapon out of anything. It's just that it takes training to be able to use it effectively.

Quite a few people have swords, but those are generally useless, poor quality metal, only fit as a bit of macho bravado hanging on the wall - not even worth being called a sword. Additionally, given that even fewer people actually train to use them properly, the "swords" are worse than useless.

Going further - is it right to obtain or make weapons such as crossbows, rifles, and so on, if it's not obvious that you're in direct threat, or when any threat is seen as a remote chance?

What, then, the steps that you can take in defending yourself? I have no problem with self-defence when it comes to someone attacking you, but is a warning shot to the head acceptable if someone is just the other side of a fence line and eyeing off a few fruit?

What if they are starving? Or they have a starving child to feed?

All I know is that good neighbours are a good start.

And rebuilding means not killing someone who's desperately trying to survive, as you are, but getting them to work for their own survival. Raiders cannot be tolerated - you need to ensure they don't see you as an easy target. Not everyone is a raider, though.

The New Economics

Here's something to remember:

Food will get you through a time of no gold better than gold in a time of no food.

I wish I could remember who said that. Quick to say, but a very important point. Importantly, seeds and plants can get you through a depression. Try surviving on money through a famine...

I have had the opinion for a long time that money doesn't mean anything, it is just an abstract - and just a way of keeping score. Things certainly seem to be pointing that way.

A whole lot of... quite questionable operators are foretelling doom with one hand, and spruiking gold with the other. Fraudulent? Perhaps. Certainly, they are playing on people's fears and profiting from said. I'm sure it wouldn't be difficult to find that this is driving up gold prices, and filling people with a false sense of security.

Personally, I'm happy spending money on making sure I have plenty of resources to survive the lean years, than buying gold... Farmers in Weimar Republic Germany made it happily through their economic crisis back in the day because they had the food - and it was a seller's market.

Industrial Chemistry, Primitive Pharmacology, and a bit of Gourmet Cooking on the side.

Well, I have been doing a bit of research at the moment - hardly out of the ordinary for me, I admit, but plants aren't my field of primary training, so learning more is essential. Restate that - learning more is always essential, but building up the basics in additional fields is often necessary.

The twist to it is that I'm looking beyond growing plants for food - yes, essential to do, but easy to forget that they're not only needed for sustenance. The other applications are (as not-subtly suggested above) industrial chemistry and pharmacology. Well, if we don't count fuel, building materials, cotton or hemp for clothes...

Plants are their own little chemical factories, and in a long-term survival aspect we might as well be able to take advantage of what we have at our disposal.

Want to have clothes be other than dust coloured? Grow and use indigo, woad, or any number of other plants. Remember to find suitable mordants, used to fix the dye to the fabric, ideally ones that are easily obtained in your area.
Want to create plastics? Caseinite, created from milk and the right acids, is a possibility. Henry Ford (well, at least his company) apparently created a plastic from Hemp. A number of plant oils can be used as mechanical lubricants...

Consider also the fact that many medicines come from plants - willow, menthol... so many, many others. Paw-paws contain papain, useful for helping people with digestive problems digest proteins. Menthol, a very useful plant... Aloe Vera a hippy favourite.

As bad luck would have it, though, camphor is a proscribed plant in this area - meaning that it's recognised as a pest species, invasive and difficult to get rid of once it's in. So, despite its usefulness, a problem - both to get and to keep under control.

The problem is, though, that there are a number of chemicals still required... Sulfuric acid can do a lot, in an industrial environment, but if you are short of it, you may be reduced to making it yourself - which is fine, if you have a source of sulfur or iron sulfide; if not, you've few options.

At least I'm about twenty kilometres from the ocean - sodium chloride should be easy enough to source... That's something... I guess... Plenty of uses for it...

Slapping one's self about the face...

I must admit to recently having had a drop in morale. Certain doors have closed, at least for now - doors that I was trying to keep open. There is nothing more frustrating than having something, that you want to do, no long be an option.

Self-pity is an indulgence, really. In a struggle between life and death, self-pity will destroy. The world feels no pity, and your competitors will feel no shame in taking advantage of a moment of laxity. As an act, it does little to help you, and only occupies time and energy.

Once in an emergency, decisive action is all that matters.



We aren't in an emergency situation, though. At least not yet. There is still time, and room, for a little self-indulgence, as long as it doesn't stop your preparations.

There is an upside to this, too - it means that my time will not be split, and I will not be at risk of spending weeks away at a time. Preparations can be continued at their current pace; gardens can be improved, equipment obtained...

A Statement of Values

After careful consideration, I have decided to lay down what I believe in my preparations...

I believe in rebuilding, rather than just surviving. I believe that isolationism will not help you in the long run, but that you need a community to help get things back on track.

I do not believe in a divine armageddon, but that it might come about through those believing in the divine - and acting in support of their beliefs.

I do not believe in acting illegally, but recognise that some tools, techniques, and information required for survival may be contrary to current laws.

I believe in watchful awareness, not paranoia.

I believe that, in a post-cataclysm world, we will need to make new friends and welcome new people into our community; I do not believe that we should be required to accept and feed everyone that comes our way.

I believe that, in a post-catalclysm world, knowledge will be key to survival in the long term, but that weapons may have to be used in the short.

I believe that gaining the knowledge, skills, and tools to survive is more important than stockpiling; stockpiling is necessary for short-term survival, but then what?

I believe that it is important to educate friends, family, and neighbours about self-sufficiency, but not to end up sounding like the archtypal conspiracy theory nutter.



I know that some of this will irritate that hard-core of survivalists...

A Change of Pace

Things have still been quiet. Quiet in the sense of still plenty of warmongers ready to bring their enemies "justice", but also quiet in the sense of spending time working on small projects.

Of significant interest have been the rumours that the rail problems were not a malicious act of terror, but one of agents provocateur. Allegations from officials have come without any proof, and now are accompanied with back-pedalling and spin. Faces that disappeared have reappeared, albeit while trying to keep a low profile.

So, projects continue being worked on, although rapidly reaching a point where only significant investment will continue them on. Of course, with a government willing to rebate for certain items, there are some ways to alleviate this problem; combined with the chance to get some electronics at employee prices, it makes a little easier to get.

Water tanks have to be looked at, too. Of course, when you have to be judicious in your choice of location, you have to do some serious thinking. Thin tanks are certainly a good idea, although having them masked from the main road is worth considering. I have found a company selling underground tanks - definitely worth the effort and price, as a way to have hidden supplies. Worth the price, if you can afford in the first place, when it's not an immediate (in terms of life without considering survival needs) necessity.

And, of course, a decent composting toilet. Aside from the fact that the small creek at the bottom of the property is supplemented with waste products from livestock... There's no need to add human waste into the cycle. Cholera isn't exactly fun. Urine, to the Chemistry minded, has its uses - and is relatively clean of bacteria or other nasties if there's no blood in it. There are a number of pre-modern industrial processes that can use it, plus it can make a decent fertiliser for tomatos, when mixed with wood ashes. Humanure, on the other hand, could be considered more trouble than it's worth. Maybe with some processing, nitrates might be available ... or, just incinerate it...

It's academic at the moment, until further funds are available. I have, however, been talking with a few friends, thinking of ways to obtain said funds. I have a healthy respect for law and order, so ruled out a few options... The idea of hiring out expertise for preparation for survival post-cataclysm was received well... It's as good an idea as any, it's just a matter of finding people willing to pay for such expertise.

Luxury of Luxuries

Driving down the road the other day, I noticed something I think few people have considered in a long time - certainly it is not something that many people would think about, nowadays.

Living in a semi-rural area, growing vegetables, trying to get food trees going, having neighbours with cows, horses, or sheep... All these things make you realise that a large, well-kept lawn (free of trees, vegetable patches, or livestock) is quite a luxury...

It wasn't that long ago that a lawn was a luxury that people literally couldn't afford.

You live in a city, you maybe have a small block - if you're lucky. I've known plenty of people who live in suburbs where the only soil you see is around the few trees, tokens of the environment far away.

In suburbia, which really is a comparatively modern invention, you have a small amount of garden available to you.

Out in the countryside, lawn isn't there to be decorative - it is a resource. You either dig it up and grow some of your food there, or you run livestock.

Having a large lawn means that you were not only rich enough to buy all of your food (which is plentiful and available) nor need to have any livestock, but that you have the time to tend to it - or can pay someone to tend it for you. Hence, the English Gentry, particularly the Landed type - plenty of other people to do the hard work for you.

Of course, PSHTF (Post Shit Hits The Fan), a well kept lawn would probably demonstrate a significant mental illness... at least until a post-apocalyptic gentry developed. This, of course, goes double for an underground shelter - if you have plenty of elbow room through out when you move in, you either don't appreciate how much work you will need to do, nor have enough of the resources you need. Or you have plenty of other people there who you believe will do your part of the work for you...

In other words, you are indulging in a luxury you might not afford... Sort of like spending big on the credit card now, and having problems later because you have so much debt to pay off.

The Gift and Price of Knowledge

Happiness is discovering someone has put, onto a website, a number of books on industrial chemistry.

Unhappiness is realising that printing them out will take about 100 reams of paper to print them out on.

Fear is the knowledge that simply accumulating and possessing the knowledge could land one in prison for a long time... even if one knows a lot of the more interesting things from several years of formal training in chemistry... And that the act of downloading could be monitored.


There is the question of whether context would make a difference - again, the several years of formal training. Printing them out, of course, is a necessity - if and when the power goes out, how would you get to them if you don't? Most of them date from the early 20th Century, so are largely out of date for most uses... of course, that they are that old would make it easier to set-up an industrial chemistry lab at TEOTWAWKI.

The Things Man Was Not Meant To Know.... Now. In a climate of political fear and control.

If the authorities in question would like to give me a job (plenty of qualifications, much common sense, but little experience), I'd be very interested - and would have an outlet for my interest in a multitude of areas.

Perhaps I should start my own little engineering concern - that might allay any fears that I wanted to do anything, well, naughty with this knowledge.


Of course, that's really what I want to do - not anything naughty, but work with bootstrap technology, do some research and development into alternative technologies that could help rebuild after any... long-term problems...

That's the irony of it... the people who would want to imprison me (for wanting the knowledge to rebuild after a large-scale disaster) are the ones likely to cause (or at least, not help) some of the possible problems in the first place.

No matter which way I look at it, I can only think that I need to find a sponsor, patronage, or something - someone wealthy enough to have the resources I need to research and build, but without the knowledge needed to survive and rebuild. Or someone who can appreciate the knowledge needed.

A small ray of hope...

I have been approached by a new friend, someone who I'd met a while back, someone I'd only just really started talking to...

It turns out that not only do we have a few common, artistic interests, she is wanting to move to the country to hobby farm. Her experience has been in small, suburban herb and vegetable gardening - not in managing acreage... I have acreage, but barely enough time to do much. I tried vegetables two springs ago, rapidly finding that much work is needed for little return. After that, I moved to mostly trees - some work, but not as fiddly. I continue to grow some herbs, mostly in containers, but devote most space to a large variety of trees.

Of particular interest, we have started swapping notes on aquaponics - the marriage of aquaculture (growing fish) and hydroponics (growing plants). In an ideal situation, you feed the fish, the waste from the fish fertilises the plants. Bacteria help, of course... There are many things to consider - not the least that you need to be able to give the time to look after the system.

I had written it off as a bad idea a while back, but have reconsidered my position. Most food comes from "non-land animals" - ie ocean farmed fish, not efficient or self-sufficient. It is possible, however, to use plant materials, fly larvae, snails, and others.

An extra farm-hand would definitely help things - and spread the costs... A few others would be good, but... we take opportunities where we find them.

Things are definitely looking up.

Making best with the least...

Another day spent hunch over a work table, trying to work out what exactly has gone wrong, and attempting to repair, a piece of technology designed not to actually be repaired.

Very little today is made to be repaired. Replace, replace, replace - with a new model, barely different to the old model.

Some things are as simple as a little BFI (Brute Force and Ignorance), pushing a DVD drive reader head back into place, a few along the lines of simple replacement of questionable quality parts, and the occasional item where nothing is obvious.

Of course, people want the best quality in the repairs, but without wanting to pay for it. Every so often, I can happily tell them that the item can't be repaired, sometimes I have to provide an invoice that is quite in excess of what piddling amount they were wanting to get away with. It is nice to sometimes be able to actual get a forty year old bit of equipment back into full working order - and at a fraction of the cost that I had thought.

Times have changed... It wasn't that long ago, really, that electronics, and any manufactured item, were easily repaired. Of course, technology improves, less waste... yet quality goes down. As the complexity of integrated circuits increases, it becomes harder to modify, or use something close enough.

I have to hold my tongue, and not point out to most people that barely seventy years ago, none of the technology that they "depend" on existed... And likely, in seventy years time, people will have to relearn all those ancient lessons.

I spend my time looking at old technology, learning about making valves and other pieces of tech that could be recreated by a small workshop of people. At least if a few people gather all that knowledge, it won't have to be re-discovered.

1984, 26 years on...

I sit writing, wondering what the future holds...

The UK elections are taking an interesting term. I say "UK" (as in United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland), although Fascist States of Britain might be more apropos. It is now next to impossible to move about without being subject to surveillance. You don't know when or where, but you will be watched. Of course, in foreseeing Big Brother, George Orwell didn't count on computers, which mean that it won't be long until you will be constantly subjected to surveillance, by an "infallible" machine, rather than randomly by a human. Of course, it won't take much, apart from a few relatively minor technological innovations, to have the computers monitoring to start making judgments about what you are doing - move a bit too sneakily, be a bit too shifty, be monitored away from your normal haunts, and you will be tagged as engaging in suspicious behaviour. Terrorism laws being what they are, suspicion equals guilt. The technology isn't that far off - there are plenty of experimental systems that can monitor body language to some extent.

How long until sentencing becomes the domain of the machine, too?

How long until a computer cannot process why anyone would state "Two plus two equals five", an illogical statement becomes a capital crime.

Not that 2+2=5. What is important is that a person is free to say it, even if they are wrong. Of course, that does not prevent someone from pointing out why it is wrong.

Once, a few years ago, I was doing night shift work. Normally, I would get too and from by motorbike; this particular night, I was walking the few kilometres home, along a major road. The weather was fine, and I enjoy a late night walk - I find bright light irritating. A walk during the day is tiring, a walk at night refreshing. I was stopped by the police, wanting to know why I was out late at night, where I was going, where I had come from. Of course, I had an answer that could be checked, but if I had just been out strolling, I could have found myself being questioned for several hours...

Back to the UK elections... one media mogul has been visible, tampering with opinion poll results, disposing of the ones which do not point towards his favourite candidate.

In the United States, many groups are openly voicing dissent and speaking of civil war; no doubt quite a few of them are quietly planning for it. No doubt, the same media mogul is adding fuel to the fire.

Is this what happens when most people have entertained themselves into a collective coma?

I sit, writing, listening to Richard Wagner, thinking...

The Value of Ethics, part 1

Questions of supplies have raised other thoughts - what are the ethics of post-apocalyptic survival? Particularly in regards to preparation

For example, I've been looking into various plants that I could get, as well as thinking about those that are a lot more difficult to get...

The easily obtained, legal plants aren't a problem - except when it comes to watering, fertilising, ensuring they get the right light, are grown with the right temperature regime. In an underground shelter, that all obviously harder than it sounds. Seeds are good - but take a long time to grow to into productive plants. And a tree that needs a couple of hundred hours of chill to set fruit and one that is frost sensitive are difficult to grow in the same region.

But... of more interest are the plants that are difficult... Cannabis sativa is an obvious one. Its fibre is suitable for ropes, clothes, making plastics, yet most people consider only the pharmacological use. Or Papaver somniferum - again, anyone attempting to get some gets questions from various authorities or, worse still, visits from local... special interest groups wanting to take possession, with or without your acquiescence. Never mind your efforts to keep enough alive and growing for future use.

Let's face it - even Nicotiana tabacum is legal to have (prepared), legal to consume, but in most places illegal to grow. Even if you have a specialised interest in gardening... It may not be the most obviously useful plant, from a restarting society point-of-view, but it's definitely an important one. It has more use as an item of trade than anything else, particularly when you need resources that you would have to spend time and energy trying to acquire - especially if you'd have to fight for them otherwise...

So... the questions of - how ethical is it to break the law for a circumstance which might not (in the eyes of most people) happen?

Give me land, lots of land...

I have been looking over land in the local area. As much as I am happy living, and working an acre, with access to a few more if necessary, any sizable shelter will need a bit more space to work it properly.

If you aren't forced to evacuate underground, then the more space you have, the more food you can grow. It's more to work, but more people you can support. There are many things worth considering - does the land have a creek or at least some sort of water, for example?

If you have to evacuate underground, then there are whole new considerations. Are you going to build horizontally, vertically, or both? Vertically takes a lot of very good design, takes up less ground area, with much higher costs; horizontally makes any building works more obvious, is easier to do, takes up more ground area... less shielding against radiation. A combination has some of the benefits, some of the problems.

Of course, a workforce who can do this (or at least arrange this to be done) makes the task easier... Of course, you have to do things in a way that local government won't notice, or worry about, or that curious people won't poke there nose into, but...

Prices of around $1 million for a few hundred acres are high, but would be worthwhile investment for a group... Even if an investor was to front most of that in order to ensure their survival, accepting the face that they need support.

The Stark Solution

Without going into the rest of the book, there is something I always have found grating in Ben Elton's novel "Stark". Perhaps it was his intention to have it irritate, perhaps it was his way of killing everyone off...

The end of the novel is very bleak, ending in everyone dying - the good, the bad, the innocent. The way the novel's Baddies die off is the one which could seem to be, with a bit of hindsight on their part, easily prevented.

Simply, the mega-ultra-rich who are the antagonists escape the destruction that they have headed (with the complicity of everyone in the story), die by suicide. They have orchestrated a massive survival program, yet only to choose to save themselves. They take no technical personnel, no workers, no scientists, not even any entertainment people. One or two try to take people of a more... intimate entertainment strain, one even assigns a person's weight, space, and spot to his supply of heroin.

Their continued, collected selfishness fails to notice that the only company they will have are the people that they most despise - each other. By various means, they kill themselves - with the Earth dying in the background.


It's irritating because not only is it so stupidly preventable but because, human nature being what it is, it is easily likely that that would happen.

No man (or, indeed, woman) is an island. Time and time again, it has been shown that individuals or small groups have a harder time of surviving than larger groups do - particularly in harder environments. If you want to rebuild civilisation (or build a new one), you can't do it as a single person, you need a group. There is too much to do to do otherwise.

I'm slowly working on the numbers, but it could quite easily be a half to a third of people needing to be workers, entertainment, and so on, a third to a quarter scientific, engineering, and technical; the rest the traditional "upper" classes. Of course, there would likely be children - needing resources, space, education but not adding to the workforce for several years.

Case in point - farming vegetables and grains is a labour intensive process. It can be made easier, but still requires work. I've moved to growing food trees and bamboo - I don't have the time at the moment to do much more.

The Lament of An Engineer

The more that I have considered the issues, the more I have come to accept that this endeavour is like sending humans out into space to create a new colony somewhere...

Consider... You can easily imagine the mission taking several years. You have to ensure that any biosystem that you put in place works - and can handle a few false starts. You have to ensure that you have all the equipment you need, or can make or improvise the things you suddenly find you do. You need as big a knowledge base as possible. You have to ensure that your power supply won't leave you in the dark, or in the cold, or suffocating. You have to have a vessel large enough to do all this, protect its occupants, and get where it's going.

All of this is the technical side of things, and costs a lot to do.

You need to start with a population of people that can get along, has the combined knowledge and experience, and of a size large enough to buffer against losses and protect against inbreeding.

Increase the population from 4 to 400, the costs escalate dramatically.

Ideally, you also don't just send one mission, you have a few.

Each time you add a colony, add each mission cost to the list...


The technical side of things, I can do. I am unashamedly a bibliophile, have post-graduate training in Engineering and Science... various fields, various levels of training, enough to bluff or at least see very interesting things. I hobby farm, so am learning all the things involved in keeping plants productive and alive, am slowly (as time and money allow) putting together a hydroponic system, slowly adding solar, and will add other methods, again as time and money allow. The technical side of things, I can do.

It's the raising money that I'm no good at... Finding people rich enough to convince that this is a worthwhile pursuit - and then convincing them that they need to supply the money... As for convincing people... While I am often the one people turn to when they need to know what to do, I am not blessed with the silver tongue that gathers them around in the first place.

Putting the species "to sleep"...

A two year old boy cries "Please, daddy" as his father tortures and beats him to death.

A group of young "men" terrorise and torture a disabled woman.

In some countries, people believe that the way to get rid of AIDS is to have sex with virgins.

A junkie comes in and, after frustrating me with my trying to find out what she actually wants and my walking away, tells me that I should be nice and happy.

Sometimes it doesn't take much to make you conclude that perhaps the species needs to be thinned out a bit.

Humans have no real threats other than ourselves. Our ingenuity has allowed us to get rid of most of the animals that threaten us. Our ingenuity and our beliefs have done so - no-one has proved that rhino horn or tiger penis does what "traditional" medicine claims, yet plenty of rhinos and tigers are killed where Viagra would be better.

The only predators humans have are ourselves... and you would have thought that, by now, we'd have worked out how to cooperate. But, no...

There was a psychological experiment done many years back, where the population of a large cage of rats was allowed to grow. The rats had all the food and water they required, yet the colony broke down as the stress of such a high population in a confined space drove them insane. Perhaps that's what's happening to people...

Things are quiet at the moment, "investigations" seem to have dwindled. In world news, it is the quiet before the storm - you feel as if things cannot build much more before they overflow, but keep building they do.

Others have noticed this, although they tend to operate more on a prophecy level than on taking note of what's happening... I write that and I wonder - what's the difference?

The After Ripples

Another week has gone by, yet we are still finding the aftermath of the past few weeks. The first, and most obvious, thing is I have found a few contacts of mine not being contactable.

A couple have managed to send short messages via message boards, limiting themselves to a short phrase or two along the lines of "alright, but keeping on the move". A number of others, however, have not been contactable at all. Most worrying, one who has... Correction... One whose forum avatar has been in use, with short emails sent out, yet with a tone that does not match what I know of them...

Police, or at least, people dressed like police have knocked at the door a few times... and these are definitely not the locals.

It seems like a few agent provocateurs are about... Most people I know, even with the local survivalist groups, aren't really revolutionaries. Very, very few talk in tones supporting major illegal activities; most aim toward personal survival, keeping themselves and their families alive - not overthrowing the government.

It's difficult to do major surveillance in a semi-rural area, though. A vehicle parked across the road is very conspicuous, when you can spend a day with only seeing half a dozen cars.

It does, though, seem things are quietening down though, and many of us have made sure that very limited evidence could be used against us... Most tricks that are known are too well known to be of use. Of course, it does mean a certain amount of learning has had to be memorised... Of course, what the government/judicial system/etc finds objectionable can be quite arbitrary. Simply having the Collected Works of Thomas Paine on one's shelf could be taken as being of Revolutionary or Treacherous Intent.

Bradbury was right, but perhaps of a limited range of books. At least for the moment...

We return to our authorised programming...

It has been an interesting fortnight, to say the least, since I was last able to write. And, indeed, a cold one.

The coal & rail strikes were quite aggressively put down, by all accounts - news has been sketchy. What has been made clear is that the military was brought in both to arrest strikers, and to get coal through. There has been talk of treason charges being brought against a lot of the strikers, and unfortunately quite a few people seem to be accepting of certain liberties being taken taking away liberties. In other words, governments are getting their way attempting to intimidate and harrass, and most people are happy to let them.

It is a simple fact - people like comfort. They get annoyed when they are subject to brown-outs, black-outs, limited access to television.

At work, we seemed to have quite an interest going on solar panels. Of course, with limited access to money, internet, and so on, delivery and supply has been limited - without even considering the rush on them. Now that the lights stay on, we are starting to get phone calls cancelling orders... Not the best situation for a business - much money tied up with expensive products.

The other problem we have had is disabusing customers of the ideas of exactly how much power a solar panel can deliver... Some mathematics...

An 80 Watt, unregulated solar panel is able to deliver roughly 5 Amps at 16 Volts (80 W = 5A * 16V). If the solar panel is regulated down to 12 Volts, this can easily drop the delivered power down to 60 Watts (60 W = 5A * 12V).
Watts and Amps are what are happening that second, not a measure of total over the course of time... An 80 Watt panel will, in 1 hour, produce 80 Watt-Hours (80 WHr = 80W * 1Hr). When regulated, this can easily come down to be 60WHr.

Say the sun shines (depending on your location, time of year, weather, cloud cover) 6 to 8 hours per day. This means that the panel will produce 240 - 320 Watt Hours per Day.

Small fridges run at 12 Volts using 4 Amps for 24 Hours per day. This means that the fridge requires 12*4*24 = 1,152 Watt Hours per Day, which is roughly four times what the panel can produce. Of course, this assumes a few things - most fridges will only run at that level when they need to cool down, which won't be too often if they are well insulated and not opened much.

So, in order to keep your batteries charged, and fridge operating, indefinitely, you need to put into the batteries at least as much energy as you take out - so you'll need a few panels - easily up to four 80W panels.

Which means quite an outlay... the best part of $2,000. Something that people rail against... Most people will accept the numbers, when you lay it out for them, a few get aggressive. And a very few will tell you how a friend of theirs is very close to making a perpetual motion machine (rather an over-unity device) work - in complete contradiction to the known (and well established) laws of physics.

The Growing Shadows

Night is starting to fall.

Significant arguments in the middle east threaten oil supplies led to a shortage. Industrial action and strikes are threatening to shut down many industries, and only a few days after my last entry, a nationalist group managed to shut down train lines that supply coal to power stations.

It has been difficult, to say the least, to write when you are not sure how long the power will stay on. It has started a small boom in solar panels, although people never quite realise that a single, small panel will not power their house. A small panel will barely keep a battery charged when people insist on using computers, relying on large fridges, airconditioning, and all mod-cons. Even medium sized televisions make a dent. And, customers being customers, they get aggressive when you point out that, to get the most from their system, they need to spend money on getting low-power things (like LED lights) and, worse than that, need to do some mathematics to work out what they can operate.

Having lived for almost two years without television, it has been little more than a space occupier anyway, although going without the internet has caused a few withdrawals... With limited power, we make do with what is available, and our own entertainment in the mean-time. Power is limited during the day, enough to keep commerce and industry going, and even only available in fits and starts in the evening.

The government has taken several days to get the electrical system back into some sort of shape, but it has ramifications. Using the disruptions as an excuse, rumour has it that round-ups of certain disliked people have occurred.

Which leads to a question...

Some one with training in chemistry, engineering, alternative technologies, bootstrap tech, as well as an academic interest in weaponary, explosives, and the like, yet not employed in such industries. If they were to fall afoul of the new "investigations", would context vindicate or convict them?

Of course, this is a purely academic question.

Starship Survival

I have come to the realisation that preparations for post-cataclysm survival are much like preparations to travel to another planet.

Firstly - you're going to be in your little shelter for a long time, and you don't quite know if conditions will be exactly what you're expecting.

Secondly - you have to make sure you have everything you're going to need once you get there, or at least be able to make what you need out of what little there is.

If you're planning to be there for a while, you better be able to grow your own food, including while you're on the way, even to the extent of planning what essentially will be an ecosystem. It's not enough to pack lots of food - at some point, the food that you need for an indefinite stay becomes more than you possibly could take with you. So, you begin to examine first the easy things to grow, then realise that you need much, much more to make it happen properly. Of course, in a small shelter/space vehicle, your options are limited, you make seed stores, perhaps some smaller animals, and hope that they all last long enough...

Or, you go big, make lots of space to get a range of basics going all the time - fish, grains, even trees (at least trying to keep them from getting too tall), bees possibly. You begin to realise that it's a lot of work for one person, of course, and a single person may not have the capital and time to bring it all together.
Moreso if you want a secure, underground shelter - anything large and good is not going to be cheap.

I mention bees, and immediately people would think of european honeybees. There are, however, a number of other species of bee that are much smaller, and more fortunately do not sting - making them much safer to handle in a confined area. It also means that you have less to get - beekeeping is expensive if you think traditionally.

In short, you start thinking much along the same lines as someone planning to send humans to another planet.

The Right To Survive

A new shadow has cast itself, this one much closer to home - quite literally.

Over the past weeks, we have had a number of white supremicists in. It started quietly, though offensively - after all, what do you say to a customer, in their 50's or 60's, who lays the blame for the New York terrorist attacks of 2001 on the Jews, and says so quite plainly?

There has been, though, a slow increase in more out and radical types; it is not that we are a shop meant to appeal to them, such as a militaria shop, nor do we target them other than as individual members the buying masses. We don't (professionally or privately) espouse racist or separatist ideologies; we don't treat customers any differently because of their ethnicity, sexuality, or any line drawn by people to differentiate between "Them" and "Us" - we just obviously supply some of what they want. Not surprising when you supply solar panels, batteries, amongst other things.

Encountering them has left me wondering... If and when civilisation was to fall, if the rule of law was to suddenly break down - would it be possible to do what I am trying to prepare for, with them knowing where I was, and what I was doing? Would it be possible to come to some accord with them? Not supporting them, or being at war with them - but a level of mutual understanding and non-interference? Would it be possible, even, to have some level of trade? Could I prove myself (and anyone with me) more useful to have alive than to kill?

The grapevine has it that they have a warehouse about half an hour further out from where I am endeavouring to grow a food supply; in it, they are well armed, with assault rifles and plenty of ammunition. The unanswered question is whether they have made preparations for post-civilisation survival, or would they quickly take to raiding?

Can you negotiate with people who want to take the food from off your trees? Would it be possible to persuade them to stop at your fence line (or even further off), when they are armed and you are not?

Am I white enough for them to even accept me as human in their eyes?

Obviously, it would be easier if I had my chemistry lab set up, or was better equipped as a field hospital (there again is the need to befriend a medical doctor), obviously better prepared for some things than they are - giving them a reason to not harm.

Another thing would be to include a few poisonous plant species in your garden - nothing says leave me alone like a lethal salad.

A counter example, one that I have always found false, and indeed irritating, was in the movie Mad Max 2 - the titular character finds himself hired to side with a group of post-apocalyptic survivors who run a small, remote oil well and refinery, and against a group of raiders. Both sides obviously have things that the other needs - the raiders use fuel at an alarming rate, all things considered... Yet neither side seems to realise that they would be better off finding a way to trade...

Of course, a semi-organised group would be much easier to deal with than lone survivors, hungry for the fruits of your labour, and having no reason to stop from trying to take it.

Yesterday the end, tomorrow the beginning.

Today the last war started.

Today began the slow, downward spiral that at once brings oblivion and birth. Like the phoenix immolating itself, a fire has been lit that will consume all only to bring life anew. Perhaps, though, a life without us - that is always the risk.

Like all things most dangerous, it has started barely noticed, and the flame that is given time to build, a gentle gust of wind to build its strength. A flame can be too easily snuffed out - too strong a wind will whip the flame away before it can become independent, so can it be smothered in fuel. So, a few notice it, and either ignore it, or cannot report it... or are the arsonists who lit it.

Anger is a strange thing; it can give us the strength to keep going, yet will easily rip us apart. When applied by nations, only desolation results. Nationalistic pride leads neighbours to aggression - preemtively "assuring their own safety", yet pulling the house down around their own heads. When one attacks, there is little need to whip the people into a beserk frenzy.

I do not know how long it will take for the few flames to build to a firestorm, all that I know is that, for all their leaders bluster, millions of civilians will die - for little cause.


So, I continue my progress at building a farm, learn all the things required to become self-sufficient. A few more trees arrive, some with nitrogen fixing bacteria - useful if you live somewhere where the soils need developing. More food trees, some spice trees; never denigrate a spice tree - the taste of something beyond the bland can have a good effect on morale.

A good variety of food, spices, and essentials (such as tobacco, coffee, even pepper) could be traded if one is of that mind. Albeit most people would have plenty, even for the medium term, or would be able to steal while shops were still full... but consumables get consumed.

A change of track

Having long since grown irritated with my job, I have quit without much fanfare but with a few nice flourishes.

Have you, for example, ever seen or read "Fight Club"? A very interesting film and book. One character makes a habit of inserting single frames of... interesting material into the films he shows. I had also had the opportunity to tell the manager exactly where he could put his managerial style, and to ensure certain back pay will be paid out.

It wasn't a difficult decision to make, obviously, but I did not take it without securing some employment elsewhere - in my case in a small electronics store. Mostly retail, some repair, a lot of giving advice. The owner had been thinking of retiring, closing the shop completely, but I and a few other fans of the store were able to convince him to keep an interest, and let us run things. The pay is reasonable, not as much as before, but there is no need to travel an additional two (or more) hours.

There are definite advantages to it, even with a small drop in wage. Firstly, I do not have to travel; this means not only do I save substantially in fuel and car servicing, I also get time in the evening to tend my growing garden - savings which more than compensate for the pay drop. Secondly, and importantly, it allows me the chance to not be in the city.

Consider most survival scenarios - a city becomes a very dangerous place, and getting caught in one is a problem. Obviously, keeping away from a city is a good thing; it must be balanced with certain conveniences that the city brings. Getting caught when the roads are blocked because everyone is trying to leave in a panic is difficult, but so is getting access to things by living as far as possible from "civilisation". I have decided that, as compromises go, living a little over an hour's travel from the city, on acreage, working in a satellite township, and going into the city the once or twice a week that I need is, while not ideal, at least leaves some of the worse problems behind.

So, I have started a new job. Another useful aspect is that many people in the area want solar panels, and plenty of other alternatives to mainstream technology. There are the people that classify camping as having all "conveniences" - such as television; there are plenty of the type who give a good reason for the need for thinning out of the species, and who would be unlikely to survive any major troubles for long. Yet, there are some who have a certain level of awareness...

Rider on the storm

I have been troubled of late...

Recurring dreams... are they products of worry, or foreshadowings?

I dreamt of a museum; relics of dead cultures festooning the walls. None of the exhibits were worth remembering, except one pair. On the wall, a large, stone mural, its carvings of Fenrir and his wolves leaping, attacking, ravaging the last few men left - a prophecy of the end of the world. Its sandstone almost dripping the blood of those already fallen.

In front, a raised platform, a large horn of bronze, even with its curls easily three metres long. Undecorated, its simplicity belies its nature. This horn, I knew without hesitation or possibility of error, was the horn; the horn that opened the gate, and shattered the chains that bound Fenrir.

I knew that the time had come, that what was to happen had to happen. There was no time better, or worse. It had been written, it must be. I knew that I could not permit anyone else to take the burden of responsibility for what was to happen, I had to press my lips to the mouth-piece. Without allowing my steps to falter, I stepped forward and embraced the end of this world.

A long, sonorous note came forth, a note not before heard in history; I stepped back and waited, the moments of silence only interrupted by my own heart. Then, I heard the start of the end. A soft scraping, the stone mural pulled apart, mist pouring out and a swallowing blackness beyond. Only when the carving had opened its fullest extent did the howling of wolves begin.

I pulled out the shotgun I found slung across my back as the wolves leapt out, ignoring me on the way to do their tasks, the obsidian skin of the beasts sleek, only allowing a glimpse at the chaos. The few rounds fired from the shotgun found their targets, yet I knew that it would be insufficient to deal with the hordes. My body stretched and changed, taking a more panther-like form, giving me claws to rend, and a mouth capable of snapping their necks or choking the beasts.

I knew that, while I might not last to the very end, I could and would make a good account of myself - I had called the darkness forth, and begun battling it. I had accepted all the responsibility and blame, but knew that from the destruction, new life and a new world would eventually come.

By His Bootstraps...

Going through the last of my father's effects has made me realise something important - although I was never a great student of Chemistry, my father's insistence that I study it, along with various aspects of Engineering (at which I was much better) now makes a lot more sense.

The problem is - how do you prepare? How do you rebuild? How do you know what materials to use? How do you get what you need once all that you can scavenge has been taken? How do you avoid the mistakes of the past, and get to what you need without several centuries of rediscovery of technologies?

As a scenario: A star close enough becomes a supernova. It is far enough away that we avoid the more serious types of damage, yet we suffer an extended or frequent electromagnetic pulse. 99.99999% of electronics are destroyed very quickly. Infrastructure breaks down, computers are useless, the world stops - or at least the parts of the world dependent on electricity, computers, and all mod-cons. Third world countries are alright - people don't have what they would classify as luxuries, and what we would as essentials. Valves, now nearly obselete, become needed again. Could you make a valve based radio? Could you make a valve?

Would you, in short, know where to start? Do you actually have paper copies of such things? Having them saved on your computer is no good - your computer is little more than a large brick.

Could you make aluminium from clay? It's relatively easy if you know how and have some knowledge of chemistry, but an impossible task if you regard ignorance as better than learning.

Could you even make iron tools? Could you, given the need, find a patch of iron ore, smelt it, build a forge, make the simple tools needed to make the more complex tools?
The vikings were able to get iron from 1% ore - incredibly low yields, but it is there for the taking.

Not necessary, you might scoff... But once you've run out of things to scavenge, once no more spare parts can be found, once you've used something like petrol up, what then?

Stills are easy enough to make, but do you know how to modify an engine properly? What about gaskets and pistons that will corrode because they were designed for hydrocarbons rather than ethanol?

Do you have anything to trade for the bits that you need?

My library acquistion continues, as does my gardening, my acquisition of skills.

Ashes to ashes, dust to dust.

My father's cremation was not well attended. A very modest turn out, the few people there wanting to remain anonymous. A few cursory nods in my direction, bowed heads and dark suits. He had requested no eulogies, no hymns; his only nod to tradition being one song - and contrary to tradition, it was Tom Lehrer's "We Will All Go Together When We Go". I didn't turn around to see, but I did feel the wry smiles of the few gathered.

The lyrics are interesting, to say the least, primarily reminding the listener that the feelings that they voice at a funeral won't be voiced for them -
"For when the bombs that drop on you
get your friends and neighbours too,
there'll be nobody left behind to grieve."

After the minimal service, I walked in the gardens, relishing the grass beneath my feet - not an unfamiliar feeling, but brought into sharp focus by the few minutes of song. I gazed upon the distant city, my mind wandered to a future memory - buildings half demolished, the giant glass monoliths having been blown on a harsh wind; the remnants of fires, their thin black threads rising to a sky drawn dark with a deadly shroud, most of the fuel having long since burnt; decaying monuments to a shortsighted people, soon to return to the earth from which their raw materials were mined.

We are just dust - all the atoms in each molecule in each cell come from the soil, and in the end that is where we will return.

I didn't take note of how long I spent there, all I remember is that I looked back to the crematorium as I opened my car door, and saw the thin black thread slowly rising up.

Economies of Scale, continued.

How do you get half a chicken? Or half a sheep?

Half a tree is easy - many food tries come in dwarf varieties, although these aren't necessarily the best way to have a lot of whatever you are growing. It may sound like a good idea, but if you are planning for the long haul, might as well get full size trees and be done with it. Dwarf trees are good for suburbia, or the inner city - but would you want to get stuck in either before, during, or after a cataclysm?

The easiest way is getting someone else to look after the animals, and set up a local trading scheme. Anyone experienced in breeding animals knows that there are certain population requirements - it is not enough to get a rooster and a couple of hens, and expect your grandchildren to be using the descendents of those few chickens for meat and eggs. Not just that you need to balance eating and breeding, but because genetics becomes a severe limitation. So, it is better to have a reasonably large collection of animals, or a few collections of animals, and have some monitoring of breeding. You get one person (or a couple of people) to look after the animals, compensate them for the time and care that is needed.

At least, you do if your neighbours are at all interested. Or you gather a few people, and assign tasks; again, finding people who will take a suggestion to join you early enough is difficult. You can always make sure that there is room for people to join you, but you're stuck with being the one to spend the time, money, and energy to get everything prepared.

But... it is either prepare or find yourself on the back foot.

Economies of Scale

It is a sad but true fact that it's difficult to do anything by yourself. You first need the motivation to not just slump down with the sheer weight of everything that needs to be done; a friend, a lover, or a dependent start to make you realise that there is something more beyond yourself. As I have mentioned before, it doesn't take much extra to do things for two than for one - particularly if that other is doing plenty of other things, too. Add a third, a fourth, and things become much easier still - everyone can start to pay attention to only a few things, because others are doing the rest.

Take, for example, what I am trying to do.

It is simple in and of itself - a hobby farm with some extra survival features. A small number of growing food trees that need to be watered every few days; the accumulation of resources and knowledge; working towards getting a bug-out shelter for emergency use; then, the bits required to keep a hobby farm going, the additional work beyond just watering - mowing, weeding, fertilising. Other options also become necessary once one thinks about longer term survival - a forge, a workshop, a chemistry workshop, some form of amateur radio set-up. Chickens, maybe geese, perhaps goats - hard to get and keep, but harder to get once things have degenerated and you are limited to what you have at hand. Wood has to be gotten, chopped for the stove (if you have a wood stove). Repairs have to be made on equipment.

A moment here for a few asides, though. Some might question the need for a chemistry laboratory; there are far, far too many useful things that we have grown to expect that may not be easily obtained - especially if everyone wants them, and no-one is producing. Expect general anaethestic? It is difficult, but possible for someone with a reasonable amount of training to produce ether from ethanol (purified grain alcohol) and sulfuric acid (of a reasonable quality). How do you produce alcohol? A still is easy enough. How do you get sulfuric acid? Car batteries have many nasty things in them, and are barely suitable - but a chemist (as in chemistry, not pharmacy) would be able to create it - and with some geology know how to get the raw materials. Likewise, nitric acid is a very useful thing, difficult enough to get in some places, but important for some industrial applications. Let us not even start to talk about more... combustible applications.

The important thing is - there are far too many useful (in a necessary, survival sense) things that we take for granted, and only a limited supply. You simply can't depend on "finding" (finding, trading, or otherwise) essential supplies when you need them most, you need to have the ability to make it, or trade something else for it - and essential supplies are difficult to trade for when using them means using them up.

I write this after seeing my father's notes scribbled along the margins of "The Earth Abides" - notes about chemistry, geology, hobby farming. I flick through the book, find my father's writing growing more strained, obviously written over a long time, the last page the only with a date - a few days before he went into hospital.

The upshot of which is the fact that a lot would need to be done, and the more hands that can help, the better. But they'd better be working to a common goal.

Remembrance of Things Lost

The last of my father's few remaining possessions arrived today. A few old handtools, some rusted beyond use, some only showing their age a little; a few geegaws, the last things that he held much for; and a few books, an eclectic mix of fiction and non.

He was not an educated man, but he was smart, and taught me a great many things; he had learnt the lesson to learn - learn from someone else's mistakes, and made sure that I learnt it well. He taught himself much, learnt what he can, and gave back more than he was ever given. He also had a great knack for not accumulating more than he needed. Visiting him was akin to moving to a monastery - a lack of the unnecessary, a spartan lifestyle born in poverty, but matured in enlightenment.

He could give me little except a dry roof over a stable house, a few books, warm home-cooked meals, a love of learning, independence, health, and his loving care. He also gave to me a generous sense of humour, and a cynical view of people.

And now, the few possessions he had.

A melancholy washes over me as I look through them; I remember him in health, and in sickness. He and a both felt a revulsion for what was eating him to oblivion, destroying him from the inside out.

His attitude had always been that a person should be self-sufficient; his dream was to buy acreage, build a hobby farm where he could grow plenty of food, let society go to waste whilst lying back in a hammock, eating on a fresh mango. Many people would laugh at it, or criticise him for his lack of ambition. I simply criticised his choice of mango - a fruit I could never stand.

Even in the few times I last saw him, I saw in his eyes a sorrow that he never managed to achieve that dream, but a happiness that I had, even if I had sworn to never allow a mango tree to grow on my land.

His illness is one of the things that worries me - without modern medicines, without vaccines, without... so many things, any of the ailments that most of us laugh at become mortal dangers. What of a rusted nail without a tetanus vaccine, what of short-sightedness without spectacles, what of whooping cough, measles? I need to make good friends with a good many people, a doctor more than most; a doctor who accepts the chances of global cataclysm is rare enough - one who is willing to take steps to survive one another matter entirely.

I have started reading again "The Earth Abides" by George Stewart; although I already know the story, it provides a salutory lesson - a plague wipes out most people, the few people struggle in the aftermath. A loner tries to rebuild society, but cannot motivate the small community he builds up to learn the few things he can teach. It is depressing, as he survives randomly - a plague randomly selects its victims, and those that survives face the psychological horror of watching all around them die over days or weeks, and not being able to do anything to heal them. You cannot prepare, you can only survive. Or not, as the case may be.

My father taught me, amongst over things, that there are times when you must be prepared to walk away, no matter how painful, to all the things you hold dear.

Choosing our own misadventure.

Our situation is most precarious. We sit on the eve of a number of cataclysms that may do untold damage individually, yet refuse to acknowledge the existence of any. Many environments have started their inexorable death; nuclear sabres are being rattled, but this time the sabreurs are unlikely to sheath; a new influenza is starting to claim lives; economies are being built ever higher, even as their foundations crumble; and a few of us, amateur and professional astronomers, have been monitoring several relatively nearby stars, one in particular that although cannot destroy the world, would destroy the ozone layer for a time.

Which leaves planning a problem. It is impossible to run for the hills, to wait for the inevitable - proper preparation takes time and resources, resources take money - and money means the need to be employed. As much as some may eschew attachment to society at large, their views are isolationistic - they believe they can protect themselves and their immediately families by removing themselves. Some of their attitudes are useful - they choose to move away from cities, learn to become self sufficient; some attitudes are counterproductive.

Take the things we have gotten use to - communication, health. Ask a "regular" survivalist what preparations that they have made, they will say they have a few tools, perhaps a firearm or two (and some ammunition), perhaps a shelter, a water purifier, two years of food. Yet tools break or grow blunt, firearms wear out, ammunition gets used up, water purifiers lose effectiveness, food runs out, gets eaten, or goes rotten.

A shelter, on the other hand, does do much good, if it's constructed well. But metal corrodes, concrete falls apart. I have seen some options made of plastics or fibreglass which might be usable. Of course, a good underground shelters need to be exactly that - underground - not the work for a single man with a shovel.

Even then, you can only do so much preparation, only store so much food and equipment. There comes a time where you have to get your hands dirty.

So, I spend my spare time learning to garden, nearly all food plants. Some fruit and vegetable staples, many food trees - natives and exotics. Pawpaws, macadamias, figs, olives, black sapote, many more - or at least will be when they grow tall enough to produce fruit. Hopefully, we will have time before their produce will be needed. Well known grains - wheat, oats, barley, and rye - known fruits and vegetables - tomato, pumpkin, beans - and a few more exotic things foods.

Seed stores are another misconception. Anyone can pick up a packet of seeds from a shop; knowing how to look after the growing plants, knowing that seeds loose viability over a few years, knowing that the next generation of seed will be viable - that is another matter entirely. Too many seeds are hybrids, they will produce the food, but not the new seed to continue to produce next year's crop. People relying on a few packets of seeds to see them into the future build their house upon the sand, oblivious to the starvation that awaits them. Combine that with the risks of crop failure - particularly at the hands of a beginning gardener...

Chaotic death will not be the exclusive domain of those to fall first - those who don't learn will join them. Those that don't learn the past, those that don't take the time to learn while there still is time, and those who don't learn at least some of the things that will be needed soon, all will become dust.

Numbers

Survival, through and after any catastrophe, is a numbers game - Do I have enough food & water? Am I far enough away from the worst of things? Do I know enough to survive?

The most common mistakes most people make (in looking at the end of the world) are mathematical. The biggest one is - Do I have enough people around me to ensure that a group of us can get through most of the trouble that could be thrown at us? No one person can know everything that needs to be known, no single person could do all the tasks that are needed to be done.

Of course, bring up the concept of The End Of The World As We Know It (TEOTWAEKI, hardly an acronym that rolls of the end of the tongue) with a group of people, most will think you're mad or joking, some will have their own plans, and very few (if any) will want to combine their plans with yours - and give you both a better chance.

Which brings the other problem - how can I afford all the things that will be needed? There's an adage when it comes to keeping horses - it's not much more expensive to have two than it is to have one. Apart from the fact that horses are social animals, there are a whole range of costs (veterinarians, farriers) where a sizable part of the expense is calling them out - the cost of dealing with a second animal is much less significant.
In human terms, suppose you have an axe, and a hoe. A single person could do a day's work cutting trees for fuel, another day tending a garden. But - two people don't need that much more firewood than one does, the additional time needed to tend the garden is much less significant, especially the rare times a second pair of hands would be needed. And you still need to buy an axe, and other good quality gardening equipment - no point getting cheap stuff that falls apart after the third use. Costs decrease as population increases. To a certain extent.

The other reason is that it's a pain to try to perform surgery on yourself.

Can you blame me for thinking mathematically, when most of my studies are in engineering and science? Although, I dare say that my chemistry would get the most use after The End.

But back to the problem.

Survivalists, as a group, tend to be fairly quiet, prefer operating in family groups (at largest), and somewhat paranoid (they could argue there reasons to be sensible) - hardly the people to congregate in a community. Mundanes (aka Sheeple, ie the people Survivalists look down upon, which is most others) simply don't see the need to worry - after all, It's All Right, Everything's Perfectly Fine. So convincing people of a need to make a few changes to their lifestyle is difficult, particularly when they think Unemployed, Inner City life preferable to Unemployed (but doing Farm Hand type work) Semi-Rural life.

So, the few of us who seem to occupy the middle ground do what we can. Make what we can, learn what we can. And try to make the numbers add up.

Reading

Have you ever read the short story "The Year of the Jackpot" by Robert Heinlein? If you are reading this... after everything has happened, then maybe you might be able to find a surviving copy; if not, it's basically a story about a man who notices weirdness happening worldwide, and statistically analyses it. His forecast, unfortunately, is proven right when the Sun starts to dim.

Things have been feeling a bit like that, recently.

There are always diseases, wars, phenomena; when it starts appearing like there's a pattern, no matter how marvellous you think the human mind's ability to see patterns, you do begin to worry.

I am not religious, I don't know if I believe anything anymore. Except I know that the Apocalypse comes, it will not be by the Hand of God, but by those people believing they are doing God's Work.

Not that there aren't plenty of ways for the world as we know it to end.

The Coming Storm

I sit, thinking of Winston.

Yet we do have differences. Smith started writing, knowing that it would end in him ending in becoming an unperson; I start writing, hoping that the world isn't turned one populated by unpersons - a cemetery.

Some inauspicious winds have started blowing. The storm of war once again is whipping up, one that will engulf everything.

Even writing this, I find myself falling into cliche. A thousand writers have already written the Earth a thousand deaths. What new words can one use when things are, as they say, going to Hell In A Handbasket? Economies are failing, people are getting ill, and the right-wing are rattling their sabres so loudly...

I take a breath, and wonder where to start. Like Winston, I write for the future, but am not sure if there will be anyone left to read what I can put down. Is it ironic or poetic that I work in communications? The act of passing information from one person to another, once to the essential way to allow people to learn has become the essential way to stop people from learning.

I have found myself working in the Ministry of Truth.

An amazing amount of censorship has happened in the last few weeks, our office has become an extension of the government. There's a certain skill to suddenly find that, with three minutes to spare, a news article has to be pulled from the line-up, and a more "friendly" one put in its place. Plenty of industry friends have been finding the same. All we have been hearing has led us to the same conclusions - war is on the way, and the only people who could stop it won't. Snatches of overheard conversation, unusual military preparations.

So, like a rat, I prepare to run... But to where? In this case, all the rat can do is hunker down, gather food, a few other rats prepared to do the same. Of course, with a mortgage, living expenses, preparations, this rat has to lead a double life. And that makes finding similar rodents difficult.

Just like Winston found.

I just hope that I don't find my O'Brien.