Setting up for the long term

I have finally found somewhere that sells hand-cranked cotton gins, I'm now waiting for a price. There is a choice of two manual ones, small and large, not one in between. Obviously, I'm wanting to avoid any that need a power supply, engine, etc., even though manual is much more work.

It's another one of those examples where you get efficiencies of scale - when you might do a certain amount of work for a certain amount of product, but with only a little more work, you can do a lot more. In this case, the difference in 14 pounds weight in postage, whatever cost for the item itself, to be able to remove the seeds from three or four times the amount of picked cotton.

I'm in a climate that means that I can successfully grow cotton, five bushes are a couple of years old now, two more that I planted last season that have started to produce , and I'm learning a few things about growing them. Cotton isn't without its problems, though. You require about 35 square feet to produce a shirt worth each year. Not that I couldn't plant more and, let's face it, it's currently receiving the processed water out of my home sewage treatment plant.

So, the choice is also one of - will I plant and harvest more? Will I need the extra capability? What cost for the extra size and weight?

If and when SHTF, fabrics will still be available for quite a while - still on bolts, as scraps, as scavenged and repaired clothing. So short to medium term, not as useful as other crops. Why waste space on such if you can't eat it, and you are going to be able to scavenge it for a while? But, as I mentioned, it is receiving the outflow of treated sewage, so the ground that that is going shouldn't be used for food crops anyway, hence my using it for cotton, also some dye plants.

Again, dyes are going to be available if things don't go on too long... but it's nice to grow them anyway.

I think that ginning cotton may have the advantage of being a task that can be done to relax, much like some people sew or knit. Then, I guess, it's a matter of learning how to spin it... And looming...

Finding alternatives

I had a dream last night that the price petrol (gasoline/etc) doubled to about $15/gallon. In the dream, I was going to refill a 50cc scooter, doing small jobs around my relatively local urban area - which in real-life is about 15 miles from me - and realising that, unlike many others, I was in not as bad a position. In real life, my car does about 50 miles/gallon - I need efficiency and reliability, rather than horsepower; such a sizable rise would see me (under current travelling) put a large amount of my weekly pay packet into my fuel tank.

Of course, those whose fuel consumption isn't as efficient, or who travel further would be much harder hit. I doubt that wages would rise the same amount, let alone rise proportionally to cover such an expense.

Yes, it would encourage people to either not drive as much, as far, or in as big vehicles - but what knock-on effects would that have? Long distance freight would obviously be impacted, although that might be buffered somewhat by efficiencies of scale - a very large vehicle may be able transport more for a given amount of fuel. Say goodbye to small transport, though. And, perhaps, say goodbye to Just-In-Time transport.

As a crisis develops, there are obvious ways to adjust, given enough warning and wisdom. More postal depots, fewer deliveries. Encourage mass-transport. Reduce the distances things are transported. Fewer large distribution hubs, more smaller ones. Less out-of-season produce, transported large distances, or a much higher premium on doing so.

Of course, this relies on societies moving away from current systems.

Governments often dislike investing in a high quality public transport system. We like cities divided into residential, commercial, and industrial. Cars are a hard habit to break - I will admit to this, although if I was living in the city, I would go back to riding a 50cc scooter most of the time.

There used to be rail near where I lived. There is, in fact, a rail line that still exists in parts, that ran a mile or so (directly) from me. The line hasn't been used in years, is missing large sections, and is in disrepair generally. Whether the local government has any interest in getting it back into condition is another question. Giving warning, they might - the old line went a few dozen miles further on, to a small town that supplies local beef - slaughterhouse and all - as well as some other produce. If road transport became increasingly costly, would they have the time, inclination and resources to find alternatives?

I guess that is what prepping is, really - finding alternatives.

The Inevitable Bugging-Out vs. Bugging-In Opinion

I'm still amazed by the number of people who think that bugging-out is the primary option when it comes to dealing with a collapse. Yes, I am a believer in bugging-in, and I will admit that I have somewhere that bugging-in is a good option... I have some acreage, food trees growing, a low population density, and some gardening skills. I have some bushcraft skills - but would I want to try to rely on them solely PSHTF?

The common cries on the pro side: "Away from urban areas!" "It's easy to hide in the wilderness!" "Simple to pack up and leave" "Can live off the wilderness!"

Yes... you are away from urban areas. You're also going to be away from equipment, large stores of food (presuming you have more than a few days worth).

"It's easy to hide in the wilderness!" Well, yes, in some respects - the number of dead hikers who are found each year because they were taken there, or got lost, would attest to that. But it's not that easy if you want food, or if other people have the same idea.

"Simple to pack up and leave!" If you are reliant on a car, and it breaks down, not so much. If you're walking out - don't plan on carrying much with you.

"Can live off the wilderness!" This one bugs me the most - the people who often say that generally haven't tried to. Or people do try it on someone else's advice, and they have to be rescued - if they survive at all. Multiply those problems by the amount of people bugging-out. Multiply that by the fact that a lot of people are going to have the same ideas about where to go - it's not like everyone is going to disperse in an orderly manner, one person to five acres. Multiply that by the fact that most foods tend to be seasonal - if you're bugging out, and expecting to survive off the land, when there's nothing to be hunted or gathered, don't come and annoy me.

I dare say that the people who right such drivel haven't spent much time actually practising the skills needed for when their food runs out... They spend their time in their 4WD, or staying at campsites with toilets, showers, and clean running water. They haven't had to be evacuated by helicopter because someone has twisted their ankle.

Yes, I'm a big fan of bugging-in, especially when you are spending the time learning skills, gardening (food and other useful plants)... and living life... If you are going to bug-out, only bug-out to somewhere you have already readied for bug-in.

Prep to live, not live to prep...

Staff

I really need... call them retinue, call them staff... call them a couple of people helping me getting things done around the place, contributing...

Well, a few pressing matters have now passed - in a good way, but not anything directly tied with prepping. It means that I have a little more time free to paying better attention to my slowly growing orchard. I have more trees in pots than I have space to put them, but the problem is that they're not the ones I have specific spaces set aside for.

I have space for Melaleuca alternifolia - invaluable post-collapse for its anti-fungal and anti-bacterial properties. I have space almost ready for a carob in between four Moringa saplings. I have two date palms to be planted near two already planted... And a lot of fruit trees that I'm not quite sure where to put - especially as I've germinated some coffee seedlings...

My thoughts are directed toward having three medium-term pshtf trading crops: coffee, carob, and melaleuca oil. All three need preparation before they are ready for use. Trade is much easier when you can control a supply of a product. All three need some sort of preparation before use...

Admittedly, those three rely on major supply chains breaking down. I have a few, longer term thoughts - cotton, various dye plants - but they would be needed only in the much longer term.

Logistics...

I cannot remember if I've mentioned it before, but I will (again if that is the case)... Logistics, logistics, logistics.

I've glanced through a few post-apocalypse films recently, whilst looking for something to amuse. I have been struck by the number of times a film production has sloppily used props or vehicles that seem to be straight from the supplier. No wear, no tear - and definitely no sign that the characters don't have access to fresh supplies. Or, to put it another way, post-collapse may provide quite a supply of gear for those willing to scavenge. This, however, assumes certain things, such as there being plenty of an item, having somewhere to keep that item unused - difficult to do, when you're a group of nomadic thugs looking for fuel/food/whatever.

Likewise, the prepper has to realise that once things have been used up - and they will - you have to make your own out of the available resources.

Forget lithium batteries. Lead-acid are slightly better. Nickel-Iron would be good - but getting them pre-collapse is an issue; post-collapse, you'd better have a chemist or engineer on hand who has researched them.

A nail, once they get in short supply, is going to be a luxury. If you can smelt, re-use old ones, good - but...

This is were doing your homework pre-collapse comes in very handy.

Japanese craftspeople have some incredible skills. Of particular note is their joinery, joining two pieces of wood, whether as a box or a building. Before the mid-19th Century, nails were not really used, as iron was rare and valuable enough that they had to come up with a better solution for their situation.

The world, currently, runs on an idea called Just-In-Time, which means that things are produced, or planned to be produced, just before they are needed. In principle, this is a good idea - you don't have stock sitting unused, you need less storage space. In practice, it has been adopted by so many, many companies that it is difficult to find anyone who doesn't. Post-collapse, it means trouble for anyone trying to get things restarted.

It's the old thought about survivalism/prepping - during a collapse, the food stores will empty very quickly. If the supply chain can't restock - people will get hungry. And very, very angry.