Exciting news

Some very exciting news that has been developing, over the past few weeks, that seems to have hit fruition.

I've been working with a couple of others on a very special project. It's not paying much at this stage, and the payer has made some very explicit instructions about not revealing too many details, but certain works are now underway. The project itself isn't large, room for not much more than the benefactor and a few others (contrary to my voiced opinion), but is a start. There are also things that have been excluded from our commission, or are only going to be implemented in a small way, but it's still happening. There's enough there that we have a start in trying a few techniques that need to be investigated and implemented in a bigger, better manner later.

I've also been doing a little bit of translation work on the side, primarily for amusement. Very old document, claimed by its current owner to be "The Last Testament", and the final Book of Laws. I'm skeptical, to say the least, but it's been... interesting.

Limiting yourself to one type of catastrophe.

Where do you put your resources?

There is a saying in prepping/survivalism circles that if you prepare for any type of catastrophe, you prepare for none.

The flip-side of that, though, is that if you prepare for one type of catastrophe, it's one of the ones that you aren't ready for that is going to get you.

I've been reading some rather alarming things about the possibility of Yellowstone erupting - the park itself is situated in the caldera (that is - the mouth) of a mega-volcano. The potential is for so much damage that the world as we know it will be wiped out, to a possible global mass extinction... Sulfur compounds choking the air, sulfuric acid devastating plant and sea life, spewing enough dust into the air to freeze non-equatorial regions.

How can you prepare for that?

Apart from completely isolating yourself for decades in an artificial biosphere? Could you maintain the systems to keep everything functional?

I do see a future for vaults, although I think people are limited in their scope, and how they go about designing them - that's if they design them at all. Most of the time, they are re-using old missile silos, rather than starting from the bottom; they design around what they already have, rather than what is actually needed. Not that the basic principle isn't valid for emergencies, but if you are planning on something which can support people for periods longer than a week or two, then you need to be smart.

What we have here is a failure of understanding...

Although I don't necessarily agree with some of the viewpoints, I do keep an eye on writings and opinions of other people preparing for SHTF. Quite a few are reactionary, racist, and paranoid, but might have some interesting ideas worth thinking further about.

Sometimes, though, you just have to wonder. One writer talked about the possibility of the electrical grid being taken down by a deliberate EMP blast. Not that this isn't a concern. But his point was that grid power was vulnerable to this sort of attack, ergo you should invest in (his book about) solar panels.

"His book about" being the operative term. Actually, his book about making your own panels from individual cells... Never mind that, all in all, it's only worth doing if you can get the individual cells much cheaper than a panel - and you know about the extras that aren't always obvious, that you can connect them in a way that is going to be effective in the long-term.

And - the reason that electronics fail in an EMP blast is that bits of wires act as antennae, and the voltage difference creates a current which can quickly burn out delicate components.

In short - if an EMP pulse hits you, it doesn't matter that you're not connected to the grid, your solar panels could fry, the charge controller will die, and you're in the same boat as everyone else. About the only way to protect things is to have them locked away in a metal cabinet, not in use, without any wires to the outside world - keep them in storage until after everything has happened. If you're relying on power to keep your refrigerator going, you'll have a problem.

It's this sort of information that really annoys me. The situation is one that makes me prefer non-electronic solutions to problems. Evaporation systems, that rely on only the evaporation of water, aren't as efficient or capable as a household fridge, but I'd rather have a few of them sitting away than relying on a complex system that you couldn't repair easily...

The stuff of life...

Water... it would be nice to see more water. Fortunately, the trees that I have in the ground are going well - which is surprising considering the heat and lack of rain. They must have gotten roots down to the water table long enough ago to keep them going. There are two which are struggling, I have to give them a drink every few days. Otherwise, the grass is brown, but the trees are green - and bearing fruit. I have to get a few things out of their pots, and into the ground - do I do that now, encourage them to get themselves going (and hopefully bearing fruit quicker), or do I wait for rain that might be a long time coming?

The trick seems to be to concentrate on those trees from drier climates, particularly the Middle East. Even the roses, apparently very tricky to grow, seem to be thriving - even with all the neglect that I give them...

Water is the essential... I have found some nice solar water stills - pricey, but would well worth it. I appreciate that solar heating and distillation is slow, but you don't have to supply fuel... Less fuel requirements means you can allocate fuel resources better. You don't have to go out to collect firewood - and you have to chop down fewer trees. More than one ecological disaster has been made worse by people cutting down all the trees to provide themselves with firewood. As much as some survivalists might not believe that a working knowledge of environmentalism and ecology isn't essential - you have to manage your resources... And trees are more vital to survival and prepping than you might realise.

Of Spring and Snakes

The hardest part of trying to prepare is finding the time to do so... There are only so many hours in the day, particularly if you're working full-time. I do need a small cadre of people, I really do.

I could do with some people who are scared enough of what the future might hold, but want someone who can navigate a course for them... People who can be tended, gardened, as need be.

Spring has struck in full force, although rain is yet to appear. Fortunately, ground water is providing the means for lots of growth, with some saplings growing at an astonishing rate at the moment. The ground is dry, grass is dying, but there is much green. A superficial glance sees things as marginal, but more is hidden than meets the eyes. Most trees are beginning to produce their crops, small at the moment, but showing promise. The most interesting trees might take several more years to reach good production levels, though - a few trees are producing usable foods, not in large quantities, hopefully this year will see more.

The arrival of spring and dry weather also means the arrival of highly venomous snakes, hidden in the undergrowth. The trick to most snakes is not to bother them - even the most venomous would rather not  bite, but will when roused. Perhaps a suitable mascot...

Ethnopharmacology and Industrial Botany

I so would love to have a bit more land - more land would give me a bit more room to plant all the trees and plants that I want to... That might mean having a couple of people looking after them all for me.

I have some plants like white willow - the bark has been known from ancient times to be useful as a medicine. There are plenty of other plants which I could find very useful...

I've been looking to find rubber trees, but I think I'd need plenty of land, and not have them too close to any house - apparently, the roots can be very invasive. Would be useful to have, though - a source of latex rubber without having to depend on oil deposits, pumps, refining equipment.

If nature is capable of doing most of the work for you, you should let it.

Eucalyptus grandii seems to be a very useful source of wood - grows very quickly, can be coppiced (ie cut down, and will regrow from the stump). Makes forestry a better activity - you can cut down and not have to replant manually - saves precious time, energy,  and resources.

I will admit that I'm looking at scenarios where the environment is not completely wiped out when SHTF - but if the world freezes over, it's going to take much more resources than I currently have access to. Not that that type of scenario would be impossible to deal with, but I'd want to go underground, would need geothermal power, need a significant aquaponic system just for air, let alone food. Not an unsolvable problem, but we can only do as much as we are able.

I definitely requires more land... And I can't quite just keep plants in pots, wait until TEOTWAWKI, and plant them out into the land around me, can I? Actually, not grandii - apparently, it can grow seven metres in its first year. Okay, anything that produces viable seeds would be okay to use, but I wouldn't want to have to graft post-SHTF just to have a viable food supply, or water a hundred potted plants pre-SHTF.

I'm also trying to grow some cotton - having moderate success doing so, though I've not sprayed it against pests, so I am not sure whether the raw cotton is getting eaten before it's ready. I have to plant some pyrethrum out - a very good insecticide. Add in there various dye plants, and you can see potentials. The whole of Organic Chemistry as a field of study and industry started because of the want of large quantities of dyes.

There are more plants out there that have uses PSHTF than just the ones that you can eat.

2012

I shall clarify my position...

I do not believe that 2012 is necessarily any specific signifier of disaster; I accept it as a possibility.

I do not believe that TEOTWAWKI is going to be a Biblical event; I believe that people might be willing to make it such.

I am not certain that astronomical events are coming to destroy us; I know that there are certain threats, and acknowledge their probabilities, and possible responses to them.

I do not believe that only the strongest, meanest will survive; I regard humanity as being strongest when it bands together, yet gives individuals some freedoms.

I do not believe that technology is going to be the cause of any downfall; I believe that it is human fallibilities that misuse technology that could be.

The joy of Spring...

The joy of Spring is that you get to see what has survived winter and, in my case, what has also survived several weeks without rain.

The grass is looking brown, yet my trees have (for the most part) begun to wake up, having tapped into the ground water before winter. My sole grapevine has opened its leaves, a few nut and fruit trees are on the verge of doing so... and, importantly, my white willows are showing life - even two that have been sitting in pots, not really cared for or watered well. Apparently, they are fairly resilient, so not too much of a surprise. For those not familiar, the white willow is the original source of Salicylic Acid - the active component of headache tablets such as Aspirin - and important when you want to think about about self-sufficiency...

Just thinking about it, it would be a useful item to have for trade in the long-term. To use it, you have to process, you can't just steal fruit, but they do a lot of the hard work themselves, you don't have to have major industrial processes. There is a certain magic to it - to the uninitiated, it is just a tree indistinguishable from others, while it's a source of something important. If you take sufficient care, it can be coppiced.

Of course medicines will be available in the short term in a crisis, and aspirin is common enough that even in medium term situations, getting it shouldn't be a problem - but what if it is?

Likewise eucalyptus oils, tea tree oils... clove, if I can get a sapling and get it going.

Having said all that, it's good to see so many plants waking up.

Putting the kibosh on someone's plans; or a new style of bugging-out

I read something interesting from another prepper the other day. Growing up in the countryside, he was a big one for exploring the world around him - going out camping, exploring backroads, and generally investigating all around him. He was quick to point out that, if you are bugging-out from the city, wherever you go, your country cousin knows the area where you escape to better than you. You run randomly out into  the countryside, planning to hide away, but you don't take notice that other people are already there.

You might get a bit of land, not too far from amenities, your neighbours have noticed the times you've been and gone. You shifting a lot of equipment into your hideaway, and leave with an empty car.

Or you park your car by the side of the road, and hike into somewhere with only what you can carry. And people will still know you're there.

Humans are relatively easy prey, and if you're always on the defensive it's only a matter of time. You protect yourself by doing a lot of work before time - you might still buy a get-away, but you make friends with your new neighbours. You give them help, you learn to blend into the community - you become part of the community. You learn handicrafts. You don't mark yourself as confrontational or aggressive, you earn allies.

I have been thinking the past few days about different ways to do things. Friends know me as a hobby farmer and a prepper - people who live close to the city. I would not deny them somewhere to escape to if needed, although I'm not sure how easy it would be to provide for them. On the other hand, I have slowly (although not easily for a  non-social person) been making at least nodding acquaintances with my neighbours - people who have sheep and cattle; people who have orchards of limes, bananas, lychees, who knows what else; people who can provide a lot more that I can provide myself - if I make an effort to help them.

If you're looking at bug-out options, perhaps it's worth your time finding a friend (with or without a family) whom you trust, someone who needs work and a place to live, and when you find a bug-out property - have them work it, prepare it, farm, fertilise, make friends in the community, be a presence in the community. Perhaps even a few families chip in to help get the place up to what you need.

I have a lot of trees planted, most of them only three or four years; some of them have started producing, some have a while before they will, one will need another decade before it becomes really prolific. In the mean time, I need to monitor them, ensure they grow. I couldn't do that if I came up from the city only every few weeks. With trial (and much error), I'm learning what vegetables will grow. I'm becoming used to the climate, the limitations of where I'm living... I'm getting invitations to hop over the fence, and help myself to excess fruit.

A friendly wave, a little tech support, some chit-chat is a small price to pay...

Getting there...

The more time goes on,  the more I think that a bit of destruction would be good for humans. Not individually, but as a collection.

We focus on celebrity, and celebrate it. The antics of one person running/swimming/whatever better than another one - we spend billions on a sports event and, at the end of the day, has that made humans any better? The criminal is lauded over the humanitarian.

A little re-direction of our priorities might do us some good.

That is all.

Something better to do with your money...

I read recently that mining billionaire Clive Palmer has been consulting with various people to find out whether it's possible to clone dinosaurs in order to create a theme park resort. It's amusing that someone would cash in on a group of animals that have been extinct so long (I won't argue on whether it's been 5,000 years or 65 million), yet when it comes to the long-term survival of our own species and all that we depend upon, is likely to call it an anti-business conspiracy. He has previously had plans to rebuild the Titanic, a boat that failed.

Here's a challenge to you, Clive - put some money in to ensuring that humans either don't wipe themselves out, or are at least able to rebuild past a cataclysm. Put some money in to developing new technologies, and exploring possibilities, so that not only will these become available, but you can put your name on being the one who made them possible. People outside of Spain don't remember King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella for nothing. The de Medicis are remembered for being patrons to some of the biggest ideas and works in their time.

You only need 1 good idea to be developed in order to justify the 99 that lead nowhere.

Very few of the big capitalists are really remembered - it's the people who were willing to lose a bit of money that we don't forget.

In exchange, well, we'll build, maintain and improve a little getaway, to start-with... and build a much larger system that can support you long term - assistants to pick up after you, technicians to keep things running, other people to fulfil any needs. We will work on new technologies that, if successful will propel humans forward. You could leave an indelible mark on history. Ever heard of fusion for producing electricity? Small experimenters have made more progress in the past decade than major researchers have in five decades before.

Technologies are there that could take us into the universe, people are knowledgeable and solving issues, it's only that we need our King Ferdinand to support us. There are a lot of problems, we just need to have someone help us.

Before anyone else asks what this has to do with prepping or survival PSHTF - everything. There's only so much food you can store - you need to grow your own. If you're going to spend your time underground, you need energy, you need a life support system, you need to find better ways to do things. You need equipment to be reliable, repairable, efficient, and small. You need power to keep things running - no good having four weeks of diesel for a generator if you have to rely on it for eight. There are problems in prepping that can be applied in plenty of other places, one problem ties into another, a solution for one problem solves another.

Value, value, value...

I should really add craft skills to the list of tradeables... Just being able to create some minor bits and pieces... if you have a source of bamboo, willow, even palms, basket-weaving isn't such a useless skill to have under your belt. As plastic becomes unavailable, just having a sturdy way of carrying items is very useful. Making and repairing craft items is a skill in itself, and if others can't do it, you might as well...

I am trying to find a couple of non-electric (ie manually operated) sewing machines - ones with foot treadles, rather than a hand wheel. Although... a little bit of ingenuity, and that isn't an insurmountable, just one that would require more work to adapt in the short term - for less hassle in the long.

I get to the subject of sewing machines because of reading one of Richard Feynman's books; he was a physicist, winning a Nobel Prize amongst others, and a social commentator. Apparently, he had a habit of touring the poor areas when he was visiting foreign countries. On one tour, I cannot remember which country, the taxi driver (ethnically African), showed him two women (ethnically Indian), who had bought a sewing machine and were doing quite well doing small repairs. His driver asked him why Indians in the country were doing well, while Africans were doing well. Feynman hesitated, not wanting to be a racist, but eventually gave the opinion that culturally a group that placed value in hard work rather than luck (or words to that effect) were more likely to succeed in the long run. The driver agreed, and said that he was going to buy his own taxi and really succeed - once he won the lottery... The point of the story is that you can't depend on luck for success - you have to do a lot of hard work.

If you want to succeed PSHTF, a lot of preparation and work is required - you can't rely on luck.

Creating value...

I've been listening to a lot of talk recently amongst survivalists, preppers, and the like, on what to stock up on, when preparing, for purposes of trade afterward. Food, water, ammunition, many things have been discussed. Popular are high silver coinage, or ones with a recognised gold content.

What you would need obviously depends on what future you expect, how many people are around - and what mood they are in...

I would think, though, that the best thing to trade is something you don't lose when trading, and something that is much more valuable with people wanting you to stay alive rather than killing you...

Traditionally, that means skills... Medical ability, trade skills... things that people can't take off you, things that someone would lose if they kill you - effectively making you, to use the words of economists, a non-fungible. Anything that means that you could not be easily replaced.

A strong pair of hands is not enough - there would be enough people willing to dig furrows, cart water, cut firewood, or similar, PSHTF - office workers or business people who can work well within a post-industrial civilisation, but have few skills otherwise. Hunting, as well as the requisite skills at dressing, are fine when there is enough game to make it worthwhile - and you have enough skill to support yourself.

This is assuming your plan isn't to take what you want by force...

The next best, possibly, would be to get things of little value, or that you can be paid to remove, processing, and then selling back. Case in point - urine. Even into the 1850s, urine was a valuable product - you can ferment it into ammonia, process it for phosphorus... Apparently, it also makes a good fertiliser when mixed with wood ash, possibly through a reaction between urea and potassium carbonate. You could do a lot, with some chemistry knowledge, although the smell is a problem. And it's not that long ago that night-soil men (as they were called) went around, generally improving life and hygiene. Getting rid of that, finding some use for it may be another issue - methane, perhaps.

Value is in the eye of the beholder... I'm trying to learn a little bit about native food plants - or even plants that don't look like food, especially to the uninitiated - and known medicine plants. Tea trees (as in the oil) are good - but steam distillation extracts the useful components. Camphor plant is a weed, but the chemical camphor has use.

The final suggestion that I would have is something of moderate value, which you can make even more valuable. Fruit is good, but you can only store so much before it rots (or have only a certain amount of ability to preserve), but fermentation (and even distillation) gives you something much more easily stored and traded...

The limits of growth

Interestingly, an Australian entrepreneur has taken pains to point out that unlimited growth cannot happen in a closed system, and that we should stop acting like it can...

Sustainability is a key to long term prepper survival - you have to operate on limited resources, doing much with little, not relying on being able to just get new items off the shelf (or equivalent) - and must be able to reuse what you have...

You have to plan ahead...

If you were low on food, and found a couple of chickens, would you eat them? Or would you keep them safe, eat some of the eggs, allow some to hatch, and try to find ways to have your new food supply last as long as possible? A quick feast might fill the belly, but a few days later you're back to where you were; at least if you are hungry a few days longer, you secure your future.

There are a few other, large scale business leaders who are coming around to this thinking, forgoing short-term profiteering, in exchange for the possibility of something better...

The Font

As the cliche goes - I've said it before, I will say it again...

Books are good... Well, many books are... I've been slack recently with increasing my library. It still happens, but if you get a book that covers a lot in a particular field, unless you need more detail, you don't need lots... Plus... If you get to the stage where your personal library is needed to help rebuild civilisation, you don't need a lot of depth and a single subject... Better to get depth on a couple, and breadth on many - Jack of all trades, master of a couple.

I've found that my collection is too small when it comes to veterinary medicine - and a little short for human medicine - so they're both on the list... I could do with a few more books directly aimed at recreating... but...

The problem is - Human History is, has been, and probably will always be about Trade.

If we were hit with a cataclysm that took us backward a couple of centuries - we'd have the knowledge on how to rebuild, but would we have the raw materials? How much processing is involved in all the "raw" materials that come to hand... if you build electronic equipment, the individual parts come from elsewhere. If you build the parts - the material for the parts has to be found... Exotic techniques might be able to be cobbled together, but do you know a local source of Indium that you could mine? Or, let's face it, Gold? Copper isn't easy to come by, but at least you'd be able to pull it out of destroyed houses, wires and cabling, but then what?

Tin is a very important metal historically in various alloys - but do you know where to get it from? At least Middle Eastern traders two thousand (and more) years ago could get it from England... Two thousand years ago, trade routes did span from Asia through to Europe, and at least part way into Africa...

Sulfur is a very useful element for making other things, but you tend to find it more in volcanic areas. Which reminds me - I have to find alternatives for catalysing ethanol into diethyl ether - from alcohol to anaesthetic.

Logistically speaking, TEOTWAWKI is going to be a bitch...

Efficiencies aren't efficiences...

I got into a, let us say vigorous, discussion the other day. A few of us were talking about generators and energy requirements... A few people piped up that they quite happily had five kilowatt generators, which can quite readily run their houses. I pointed out that my standard load is barely 500 watts - which was scoffed.

But the discussion got me to thinking - would I want a large generator to see me through a cataclysm? Generators require fuel - and maintenance... Efficiencies aren't efficiences, when you think about it - the technology required to get a two or three percent more power out of anything may make the difference between easy to repair at home, and impossible. If your PSHTF power supply takes more to keep running than you can do, is it worth having?

A fifty year old generator that doesn't need much to keep going is significantly better... A steam engine with external combustion maybe even better - okay, you don't get as much power out of the same size, but... for the want of a nail, the war was lost...

The apocalypse might not be televised, but will be really well attended...

...PSHTF also. It's surprising, sometimes, about who regards themselves as a survivalist/prepper/what-have-you. There are plenty of your stereotypical types, but every-so-often some big name will announce that they're worried about TEOTWAWKI, get a lot of publicity... Usually along the lines of "Have they lost their final marble" in tabloids, but... Of course, occasionally, there are those whose statements are in-line with their particular area of expertise - the number of well-respected economists currently going "heads-down, take cover" is well above background levels.



Of course, it does make me wonder how many of these are planning to not survive, or just have them and their immediate family survive... Philanthropy goes a short way... On the other hand, do you have to help someone who refuses to help themselves? Or, at least, refuses to try to help themselves?

I also wonder how many of these people actually prepare for afterward? Stored food lasts only so long; the best way to store seed is to have some of it growing as crops, storing some, replanting some, rotating  the old seed stock out. How many have a small library of books on a reasonably wide range of subjects, technical and scientific. And some art books - I am not so much of a philistine that I do not see value in art for improving the human condition.



There are many ways the world could end, or at least receive its catalyst... A large solar storm hit the Earth a few days ago, fortunately not large enough to cause damage to our electronic society, but what would happen if one was? I know that a large amount of my work-space would be useless - so many electronics parts made useless (possibly)...

But we still prepare, we still try to not provide too much publicity to what we do.

Game theory, really... If lots of people took prepping seriously, it wouldn't be a problem to let everyone know that we did - however, because everyone doesn't announce their plans, it's better that no-one does. Of course, that assumes everyone is rational, and that they are no people who'd try to take advantage of the situation... then again, game theory does allow for that.

I got ordained a few weeks ago. Not that I'm religious, or anything other than an atheist - it's very handy to have by the side... I need to find a few people, create a religious order based around accruing prepping and keeping knowledge alive.

I've also managed to order a copy of a book that I've known of for well over a decade and a half - I only need the one chapter, but it's worth having the rest of it as well. The book is on catalytic chemistry (I wrote that I like to accumulate knowledge) - the particular chapter of interest involves how to create a zeolite (a particular family of crystal) that will convert ethanol (drinking alcohol) to heptane and octane (aka petrol, gasoline)... Of course, obtaining the raw materials to create this may be difficult PSTHF, which means stockpiling, finding in-ground mineral sources, or chemically making the precursors out of rawer materials.

The problem is that most of our technology involves a very long manufacturing chain... Maybe have the religious order also try to improve some of the manufacturing chain problem. Which gets back to funding - while this world exists, it's difficult to tear oneself away - you need to render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's, which doesn't give you much time to do all the other things that need to get done...

Running more numbers

I am amazed by the people who don't have anything better, or more pressing, to do than write - I tend to wonder if they actually get anything else done. My garden is coming along quite well, although I've trimmed a few trees back, I should trim more. The important point is that they are showing willing to produce - which is important. Of course, they are willing to grow given light, water, and a small amount of commercially produced fertiliser. There is livestock in the area, so I could collect dung, fertilise "naturally", but that is a lot of work.

My thoughts have been straying once again to thoughts of community. Strangely enough, the right-wing survivalists have been saying much the same thing - groups work, humans need them, and that it's difficult to be a good farmer if you're spending your time PSHTF being a good mechanic. It's just a pity at the moment, most of the people that I would want to form a community with live several miles away, at a minimum - so the rule applies: improvise, adapt, change, or do without.

I have started to get back in to chess... and realised that it's much more difficult than people realise, but more interesting. It's also helping my martial arts, strangely enough. It's not enough to run into a bad situation - if you want to survive, you need to plan ahead, note any possible catches or difficulties, and set things up. Victory isn't swift (generally), but takes a bit of setting up.

A different perspective

I had the opportunity  a few weeks ago to attend in a most interesting little conference. Not highly publicised but, like most of the participants, I wouldn't have wanted lots of uninitiated people aware and attending.

It was a group of mostly-likeminded individuals and groups who were there to discuss strategies and methods of cataclysm survival - and of assessments of how things could go.

I did not have the opportunity to make a presentation, although raised several issues which had people thinking, primarily about - what happens when "a couple of weeks" becomes "many years", and whether it's worth trying to get things back on track. Fortunately, I was also one of a group of people who raised the issue that survival is a matter of numbers - more people can make things easier... Case in point, my coffee trees are getting ready to bear beans again, but the  number of beans from a single tree makes it a pain to process your own - if you have much more than you can grow, you could always trade, and the effort to process one kilogram is not much more than to produce one tenth of that. There is something to be had with economies of scale...

Who runs Bartertown? More importantly, HOW runs Bartertown?

There is the important question of HOW things will end - with a bang or a whimper. Like most people interested in survival/prepping/what-have-you, I start from an assumption of  "Well, everyone else will be in trouble, but I'll be alright". Which is, of course, quite narrow minded.

How will things end? And how will things restart?

I have been thinking about a lot of PSHTF movies. Not a terribly good inspiration, or necessarily in any way based in fact or likelihood, more just something to irritate me.

For example, the Mad Max movies. Classic example of PSHTF. Great action films.

Except.

Except for the fact that the second and third movies are not possible.

For those not remembering, the second film sees the protagonist coming across an oil refinery in the middle of nowhere. No farms, no nearby villages (as far as we can tell), no food, no water, no hunting or fishing - nothing.
Third film - similar situation - a town in the middle of the desert. No obvious water supply (perhaps from underground), but no arable land, no food being carted in. Sure, there are pigs producing dung which creates methane to run generators - but where does the food for the pigs come from?

Both situations - impossible.

Where you have people, you have food. The more people you have, the more food you need - and the more your town is going to need much more farmed land nearby in order to support the town. Without mechanisation and transportation (let alone refrigeration), it's very difficult to support any urban population. And urban populations are important - they're the ones who aren't spending time in the fields, maintaining the farms, instead being able to invent, trade, produce culture, and all the other things we regard as marks of an advanced society.

We become so reliant on one another - when one tumbles, it's not a problem... when several tumble, it's too easy for the rest to fall.

There are a few movies which allow for some sort of PSHTF, agrarian society to have been re-established... but... movies are not about educating, but making money...

The point of this is - whenever you have a large group of people, you are going to have to feed them. Stop feeding them, and they'll either walk away, or test with you whether they like the taste of long pig.

A suitable aphorism

I managed to find some time to sit down yesterday, and did something that I should have done - or, rather, taken steps to not have needed to do...

I sat down with various sprays and sandpaper, and cleaned my axe.

It had been sitting out on the patio, exposed to the environment, although under cover, for a while, and had developed a significant coating of rust. A bit of work later, I have removed some of it, some still remains... and I found myself reflecting that I, myself, have gotten a little rusty with things. Oh, I have planted a few trees, have mowed grass where needed, have watched fruit and nuts start to develop, but really not done anything active for a couple of months.

So, I contacted a friend, we're going to work on a few items, such as a solar food dryer, a water wheel, some wind generators.

On a different note, olives eaten straight off the tree do not taste nice... but the trees are starting to produce...